中辉有色观点-20250728

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. Individual metal品种ratings are as follows: gold - high - level adjustment; silver - high - level adjustment; copper - rebound under pressure; zinc - rebound under pressure; lead - under pressure; tin - under pressure; aluminum - under pressure; nickel - weak; industrial silicon - correction; polysilicon - correction; lithium carbonate - cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views - Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term bullish logic for gold remains due to factors like Fed rate - cut expectations, debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping. Silver follows gold and basic metals in adjustment, with long - term upward trend intact. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and aluminum prices are under pressure due to various factors such as inventory changes and supply - demand imbalances. Nickel price is weak, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are in correction. Lithium carbonate has a cautiously bullish outlook with potential for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Metal (Gold and Silver) Gold - Core view: High - level adjustment [1] - Logic: Short - term tariff risks are reduced, but long - term factors like weak dollar trend, loose monetary policies, and central bank gold purchases support long - term strategic allocation [1] - Price range: [765 - 784] [1] - Strategy: Focus on support around 765, long - term trend remains unchanged [3] Silver - Core view: High - level adjustment [1] - Logic: Follows gold and basic metals in adjustment. Economic demand supports, and long - term upward trend is intact due to fiscal stimulus for industrial demand [1] - Price range: [9050 - 9350] [1] - Strategy: Focus on 9050 support, treat as short - term adjustment [3] Group 4: Summary by Metal (Copper) - Core view: Rebound under pressure [1] - Logic: Overseas inventory accumulation, potential US copper import tariff, and high electrolytic copper production drag down prices. However, long - term supply shortage and strategic importance support long - term bullish view [1][5] - Price range: Shanghai copper [78000, 79500], London copper [9700, 9850] dollars/ton [1][6] - Strategy: Wait for price to stabilize and then look for buying opportunities at low prices [6] Group 5: Summary by Metal (Zinc) - Core view: Rebound under pressure [1] - Logic: Abundant supply in 2025, increased domestic smelting capacity, and weak demand during off - season lead to price pressure [1][8] - Price range: Shanghai zinc [22500, 23000], London zinc [2700, 2900] dollars/ton [1][9] - Strategy: Look for short - selling opportunities at high prices [9] Group 6: Summary by Metal (Aluminum) - Core view: Under pressure [1] - Logic: Domestic consumption is weak, with inventory accumulation and declining downstream processing industry's operating rate. Alumina supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][10][11] - Price range: Shanghai aluminum [20000 - 20800] [11] - Strategy: Short - sell on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to inventory changes [11] Group 7: Summary by Metal (Nickel) - Core view: Weak [1] - Logic: Uncertain overseas environment, potential high tariffs on Russian nickel, and weak domestic supply - demand situation with inventory accumulation and weak downstream consumption [1][12][13] - Price range: [120000 - 123000] [13] - Strategy: Short - sell on rebounds, pay attention to inventory changes [13] Group 8: Summary by Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Core view: Cautiously bullish [1] - Logic: Supply disruptions exist, and the expected annual surplus is reduced. However, beware of price fluctuations due to market sentiment [1][14][15] - Price range: [77000 - 80000] [15] - Strategy: Take profit on long positions and wait and see [15]