宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemical products is strong, and the PTA market has risen. However, the spot market basis has weakened due to the PTA main supplier's shipments and the weakening of the quoted basis. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult for unplanned device overhauls to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - In the short term, after the release of emotions, the market will generally follow cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Upstream: On July 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $580.50 per ton, up 0.76%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $720.50 per ton, up 0.70% [1]. - PTA: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,936 yuan per ton, up 1.77% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,902 yuan per ton, up 1.83%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,894 yuan per ton, up 1.66% [1]. - PX: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 7,062 yuan per ton, up 1.52% from the previous value; the settlement price was 7,022 yuan per ton, up 1.74%. The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market was 6,840 yuan per ton, up 1.76% [1]. - PR: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,130 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,088 yuan per ton, up 1.16%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 1.25% [1]. - Downstream: On July 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,600 yuan per ton, up 0.23% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 1.02% [2]. Supply - related Information - Device Information: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. - Inventory and Market Situation: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time [2]. Demand - related Information - Industry Operating Rate: On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.01%, unchanged [1]. - Sales Rate: On July 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 78%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 130%, up 44 percentage points [1]. Market Analysis and Strategy - PX: This week, the PX price rose after a stalemate, with the absolute price on Friday up 4.2% to $874 per ton CFR compared to the previous period. The weekly average price rebounded slightly, up 1.2% to $851 per ton CFR. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. Currently, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - PTA: In the third quarter, PTA will have new device production, and the current PTA processing fee is in a low - range. The polyester factories actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. Attention should be paid to whether the rumors of several PTA device overhauls in early August will be realized [2]. - Trading Strategy: Affected by the anti - involution trend, bulk commodities are strong. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,936 yuan per ton (up 2.53%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.2 million lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 7,062 yuan per ton (up 2.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 190,000 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 6,130 yuan per ton (up 1.86%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2].