Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Due to the passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and other assets, the Trump administration's pressure on Powell increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, continuous gold purchases by global central banks, and unresolved geopolitical risks, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] Summary by Relevant Data Gold - Futures Market: Shanghai gold futures active contract closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to a certain reference. Volume decreased from 331217.00 to 216188.00, and open interest decreased by 1605. Inventory (in ten - grams) increased from 29358.00 to 30258.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 37762393.92 to 37143884.29 [1] - Spot Market: Shanghai gold spot closing price was 773.61, with a change of - 3.39 compared to a reference. Spot - futures basis was - 3.71 on one date, - 3.64 on another, and - 4.70 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London gold spot price was 3343.50, 3365.85, and 3318.50 on different dates, with a change of 25.00. SPDR gold ETF holding was 957.09, and iShare gold ETF holding was 449.60 [1] Silver - Futures Market: Shanghai silver futures active contract closing price was 9392.00 on one date, 9386.00 on another, and 9271.00 on a third, with a change of 6.00. Volume decreased from 1253182.00 to 742060.00, and open interest decreased by 16707. Inventory (in ten - grams) decreased from 1188721.00 to 1204466.00. COMEX futures active contract closing price was 38.33, 39.29, and 38.44 on different dates, with a change of - 0.11. Volume decreased from 23117.00 to 17478.00, and open interest decreased by 1072. Inventory (in troy ounces) decreased from 3632208.40 to 497804173.90 [1] - Spot Market: Shanghai silver spot closing price was 146.00, 9372.00, 9351.00, and 9226.00 on different dates, with a change of 21.00. Spot - futures basis was - 35.00 on one date, 25.00 on another, and - 20.00 on a third, with a change of - 0.07. London silver spot price was 38.74, 39.03, and 37.76 on different dates, with a change of - 0.29. US iShare silver ETF holding was 15230.43, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holding was 6040.98 [1] Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold spot price to Shanghai silver spot price was 82.97, 84.32, and 82.76 on different dates, with a change of - 1.55. The ratio of New York gold futures price to New York silver futures price was 87.11, 85.82, and 87.04 on different dates, with a change of 0.07. The ratio of London gold spot price to London silver spot price was 86.32, 86.25, and 87.90 on different dates, with a change of - 1.58 [1] Other Commodities - INE crude oil price was 512.90, 4.00, and 508.90 on different dates, with a change of - 3.90. ICE Brent crude oil price was - 2.05, 68.53, and 67.60 on different dates, with a change of - 0.93. NYMEX crude oil price was 65.07, 66.16, and 66.31 on different dates, with a change of - 1.09. Shanghai copper futures price was 79250.00, 79890.00, and 79700.00 on different dates, with a change of - 450.00. LME copper spot price was 9867.00, - 58.50, and 9796.00 on different dates, with a change of - 71.00. Shanghai rebar price was 3356.00, 3294.00, and 3224.00 on different dates, with a change of 62.00. Dalian iron ore price was 802.50, 811.00, and 809.00 on different dates, with a change of - 8.50 [1] Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Shanghai inter - bank offered rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.52, 1.37, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of - 0.12. SHIBOR one - year was 1.63, 1.62, and 1.64 on different dates, with a change of 0.01. US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.4300, 4.4000, and 4.4700 on different dates, with a change of - 0.03. US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0400, - 0.02, and 1.9800 on different dates, with a change of - 0.08. US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.4400, 2.4500, and 2.4300 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01. US dollar index was 97.6701, 97.4884, and 98.6419 on different dates, with a change of - 0.97. US dollar - RMB central parity rate was 7.1385, 7.1419, and 7.1522 on different dates, with a change of 0.00. Euro - RMB central parity rate was 8.4077, 8.3228, and 8.4001 on different dates, with a change of - 0.01 [1] Stock Indices - Shanghai Composite Index was 3593.6553, - 12.07, and 3605.7269 on different dates, with a change of 33.86. S&P 500 was 6363.3500, 6388.6400, and 6297.3600 on different dates, with a change of 25.29. UK FTSE 100 was 9120.3100, 9138.3700, and 8972.6400 on different dates, with a change of 147.67. French CAC40 was 7818.2800, 7834.5800, and 7822.0000 on different dates, with a change of 16.30. German DAX was 24217.5000, 24295.9300, and 24370.9300 on different dates, with a change of - 78.43. Nikkei 225 was 41456.2300, 41826.3400, and 39901.1900 on different dates, with a change of - 370.11. South Korean Composite Index was 3192.2900, 3.76, and 3196.0500 on different dates, with a change of 5.60 [1] Important Information - The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with Trump stating that the EU would increase investment in the US by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of energy products [1] - After the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes within the year. There are different views on the " $550 billion investment" [1] - The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US consumer - end inflation annual rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August increased, but the probability in February decreased [1] - The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France continued to rise in July. The eurozone (Germany) consumer price index annual rate in June was 2% (2%), meeting expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects the ECB to cut rates about once before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May, continuing to reduce government bond holdings from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK consumer price index annual rate in June was 3.68% (3.7%), higher than expected. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), higher (lower) than expected. The expectation of a rate cut by the Bank of England in August increased, and it may cut rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% in January and may start reducing quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core consumer price index annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. There is still an expectation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan before the end of 2025 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the above factors, the downside space for precious metal prices may be limited. Investors are recommended to mainly lay out long positions on dips. The support and resistance levels for London gold are around 3150 - 3250 and 3600 - 3700 respectively, for Shanghai gold around 730 - 760 and 800 - 850, for London silver around 35 - 37 and around 40 - 48, and for Shanghai silver around 8600 - 9000 and 9500 - 10000 [1]
贵金属日评：美欧达成关税贸易协议，美日达成关税协议提高日本央行加息预期-20250728
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-07-28 03:29