沪铜日评20250728：国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减，国内电解铜社会库存量初现下降-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the passage of the U.S. stablecoin - related bill and the increased probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the production or transportation of multiple overseas copper mines is unstable, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month - on - month. However, the optimistic expectation of the domestic anti - internal roll - back policy has begun to ease, which may lead to an adjustment in the price of Shanghai copper. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and U.S. copper [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Copper Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,250, a decrease of 640 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,147 lots, an increase of 14,228 lots; the open interest was 180,830 lots, a decrease of 666 lots; the inventory was 16,133 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; the average price of SMW 1 electrolytic copper was 79,450, a decrease of 345 [2] - Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount: On July 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper basis was 200, an increase of 295 from the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 5, an increase of 5; in North China, it was - 140, a decrease of 10; in East China, it was 10, a decrease of 15; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was - 80, a decrease of 20 [2] - London Copper: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,796, a decrease of 58.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 128,475; the spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract was - 53.68, a decrease of 3.76; the spread of the 3 - 15 month contract was - 95.15, a decrease of 5.52; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0900, a decrease of 0.02 [2] - COMEX Copper: On July 25, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.804, a decrease of 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory weight was 248,635, an increase of 3,127 [2] 3.2 Industry News - Mine Accidents and Suspensions: Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada has suspended operations due to a tunnel collapse in the non - production area, with 3 workers trapped underground. The mine is expected to produce 20,000 metal tons of copper in 2025. Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli mine will increase copper concentrate production to 15,000 tons in 2026 and later from 4,000 tons in 2025. A blasting fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industry in Yuanqu County, Shanxi, resulting in 3 deaths [2][3] - Mine Closures and Reductions: Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Queensland, Australia next week, with about 500 job cuts. Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons. The production of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine is expected to decrease from 520,000 - 580,000 tons to 370,000 - 420,000 tons in 2025 [2][3] - Mine Resumptions and Expansions: The west side of Zijin Mining's Kamoa - Kakula copper mine resumed production in early June, but the drainage on the east side may last until September. The second - phase 150,000 - ton capacity of Tongling Nonferrous's Mirado Copper Mine in Ecuador may be put into production in the second half of 2025. The second - phase 200,000 - ton - per - day expansion project of Julong Copper Mine may be completed by the end of 2025 [3] - Other News: The U.S. House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill and allowed pension funds to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff pushed up commodity prices, and the U.S. consumer - end inflation CPI annual rate in June increased. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increased, while the probability in December decreased [2][3] 3.3 Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, and pay attention to the support level of 76,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level of 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,300 - 9,500 and the pressure level of 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support level of 5.0 - 5.2 and the pressure level of 6.0 - 7.0 for U.S. copper [3]