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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250728
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-28 03:29

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend strength of -1 [2][7]. - Silver is predicted to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. - For copper, the decrease in domestic inventory restricts price decline, and its trend strength is 0 [2][11]. - Zinc is likely to experience high - level oscillations, with a trend strength of -1 [2][14]. - Lead lacks driving forces, and its price will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][16]. - Tin prices are disturbed by the flood in Wa State, and its trend strength is -1 [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 0; alumina has intense multi - empty games, with a trend strength of -1; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25]. - For nickel, macro - expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Price and Trading Data - Gold: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪金2510, 黄金T+D, Comex黄金2510, and London gold spot were 777.32, 773.61, 3338.50, and 3336.68 respectively, with daily declines of 0.18%, 0.19%, 0.97%, and 0.97% [5]. - Silver: Yesterday, the closing prices of沪银2510, 白银T+D, Comex白银2510, and London silver spot were 9392, 9372, 38.325, and 38.158 respectively, with daily changes of 0.06%, 0.22%, - 2.44%, and - 2.40% [5]. Macro and Industry News - The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with a 15% tariff covering most EU goods exported to the US [5]. - The US June durable goods orders preliminary monthly decline was - 9.3%, the largest since the pandemic, dragged down by aircraft orders [8]. - It is reported that after the Japan - US agreement, the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [8]. - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size saw a narrowed year - on - year decline to 4.3%, with the equipment manufacturing industry playing a prominent supporting role, and the automobile industry's profit increasing by 96.8% [8]. Copper Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铜主力合约 and 伦铜3M电子盘 were 79,250 and 9,796 respectively, with daily declines of 0.80% and 0.59% [9]. Macro and Industry News - Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, then changed his statement, expecting most agreements to be completed before August, and the possibility of Canada reaching a new agreement before the deadline is low [9]. - Anglo Asian Mining's Demirli copper mine in Azerbaijan started trial production, with an expected copper concentrate output of 4,000 tons in 2025 [9]. - At least four copper - carrying ships were trying to reach US ports before August 1 to avoid a 50% import tariff on copper [11]. Zinc Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锌主力合约 and 伦锌3M电子盘 were 22,885 and 2,829 respectively, with daily declines of 0.56% and 0.40% [12]. News - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs clarified its position on China - EU differences such as so - called "over - capacity" and industrial subsidies [13]. Lead Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪铅主力合约 and 伦铅3M电子盘 were 16,955 and 2,020.5 respectively, with a daily increase of 0.38% for沪铅主力合约 and a decline of 0.12% for 伦铅3M电子盘 [15]. News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) said that in May 2025, the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [16]. Tin Price and Trading Data - Yesterday, the closing prices of沪锡主力合约 and 伦锡3M电子盘 were 271,630 and 34,140 respectively, with daily declines of 0.85% and 1.50% [19]. Macro and Industry News - Similar to gold and silver, including US - EU trade agreement, US durable goods orders decline, Japan's possible interest rate hike, China's industrial enterprise profit situation, etc. [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Price and Trading Data - For aluminum, the closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20,760, and other related data such as trading volume, inventory, and spreads are provided [23]. - For alumina, the closing price of沪氧化铝主力合约 was 3428, and relevant data are also presented [23]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the alloy主力合约 was 20,135, and related data are included [23]. Comprehensive News - China's June industrial enterprise profits above designated size had a narrowed decline, and the automobile industry's profit increased significantly [25]. - Trump believed that Powell would start suggesting interest rate cuts [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price and Trading Data - For nickel, the closing price of沪镍主力 was 124,360, and various related industrial chain data are provided [26]. - For stainless steel, the closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 13,030, and relevant data are also given [26]. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [26]. - In April, China Enfei's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project started trial production, with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [27]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [27]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [28]. - The Indonesian government - approved 2025 RKAB production for nickel mines was 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target [28]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, expected to affect nickel - iron output by about 1900 metal tons per month [28]. - The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [29].