金属周期品高频数据周报：交易所调整焦煤期货合约交易限额，建议关注期货价格波动风险-20250728

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The report highlights that the steel sector's profitability is expected to recover to historical average levels, supported by government policies aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity [4][5] - The report notes significant fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly in coking coal, and suggests monitoring the risks associated with futures price volatility [4] Liquidity Analysis - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, indicating a potential impact on market liquidity [11][20] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 49.12 in June 2025, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.07% [11][20] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, increasing by 5.50% to 3450 CNY/ton [9][41] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.81%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [41] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate for semi-steel tires was reported at 75.87%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points [2] - Major commodity prices showed varied performance, with cold-rolled steel prices increasing by 6.42% [2] Subsector Performance - The prices of main coking coal and iron ore reached four-month highs, with coking coal prices at 1227 CNY/ton, up 6.6% [9][2] - The report indicates that the profit margins for titanium dioxide and flat glass are currently low, with flat glass margins at -58 CNY/ton [78][80] Valuation Metrics - The report notes that the PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.57, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [9][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [9] Export Chain - The PMI new export orders for China were at 47.70% in June 2025, indicating a slight month-on-month increase [3][9] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates was reported at 1261.35 points, down 3.24% [3]