南华期货集运周报：MSK新一周开舱报价下降-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index Settlement (SCFIS) for European routes stopped rising and declined, while the US West routes rebounded. The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), and Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI) all continued to decline [1][7]. - The current influencing factor for futures prices is the spot cabin quotes on European routes. The spot cabin quotes of some major shipping companies in August started to fall, reducing the valuation of near - month contract futures prices, while the strong commodity sentiment and relatively eased macro - sentiment led to a short - term rebound in futures prices, causing the overall long - term futures prices to rise slightly [1]. - There are many uncertain factors, and it is more likely that futures prices will maintain a slightly downward trend in the short term. Traders are advised to observe and look for opportunities to short the basis in the short term, and can temporarily stay on the sidelines for inter - period arbitrage [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Strategy - For the spot - futures (basis) strategy, traders should observe and look for short - term opportunities to short the basis [2]. - For the arbitrage (inter - period) strategy, traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines [3]. 3. Market Review - As of Friday, the closing prices and settlement prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. The closing price of EC2510 fell 5.30% from the previous week to 1527.5 points, and the settlement price fell 6.14% to 1530.9 points. The main influencing factor was the spot cabin quotes on European routes [3]. 4. Spot Information - Freight Rates - As of July 21, the SCFIS European route, the futures underlying index, stopped rising and declined with a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% (previous value was 7.26%), while the US West route freight rate rebounded with a month - on - month increase of 2.78% (previous value was - 18.69%). As of July 25, CCFI, SCFI, and NCFI all continued to decline [7]. - By route, the North American routes continued to decline. The SCFI US West route decreased 3.50% month - on - month (previous week was - 2.37%), the SCFI US East route decreased 6.48% month - on - month (previous week was - 13.42%), and the SCFI European route increased 0.53% month - on - month (previous week was - 0.95%) [7]. - Demand Side - No specific summary content is provided in the text, only data charts such as the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in deployed capacity by route are presented [21][23]. - Supply Side - As of July 25, the global container ship idle capacity ratio was 1.8%. The idle capacity of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 66,230 TEU, accounting for 1.4% of this type of ships; the idle capacity of container ships from 12,000 to 16,999 TEU was 25,859 TEU, accounting for 0.3% of this type of ships. The idle ratio of ultra - large container ships decreased again [27]. - The congestion index of Shanghai Port decreased by 7.9 thousand TEU to 547.8 thousand TEU compared with last week; the congestion index of Rotterdam Port decreased by 22.3 thousand TEU to 176.3 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Antwerp Port increased by 5.5 thousand TEU to 95.2 thousand TEU; the congestion index of Hamburg Port increased by 12.4 thousand TEU to 106.6 thousand TEU [30]. 5. Spread Analysis - The current SCFIS European route stopped rising and declined with a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%, reported at 2400.50 points. The main contract EC2510 closed at 1592.7 points on Monday, and the basis increased slightly compared with last week. Affected by the decline in the spot cabin quotes of some shipping companies on European routes in August, the valuation of the 10 - contract decreased, while the futures underlying remained at a relatively stable level based on the current spot freight rates, so the basis was still relatively high. Traders are advised to observe and look for short - term opportunities to short the basis [35]. - The spread of the EC2508 - EC2510 contract combination was 685.1 points, the spread of the EC2508 - EC2512 contract combination was 492.4 points, and the spread of the EC2510 - EC2512 contract combination was - 192.7 points. The 08 - contract is about to enter the delivery month, and the futures price volatility has converged. The 10 and 12 contracts had relatively large previous increases, mainly due to the stable and rising spot cabin quotes on European routes. Now that the MSK quotes have finally fallen, the 10 and 12 contracts also had relatively large declines. Traders can temporarily stay on the sidelines [37].