【生猪周报（LH)】生猪出栏缩量，现货震荡偏弱-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the pig industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig market shows a situation where pig slaughter volume is shrinking, and the spot price is fluctuating weakly. The supply is affected by factors such as piglet diarrhea in January - February, which impacts the pig slaughter supply from June - July. Meanwhile, demand has shown some recovery, and the inventory of slaughterhouses and frozen products is at a low level compared to the same period. The futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and there are multiple stimulus policies that are expected to boost future pork demand. The market is likely to oscillate at the bottom [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. Piglet diarrhea in January - February affected the pig slaughter supply from June - July. After the initial slaughter in mid - June, group farms' willingness to reduce weight decreased, and the spot price stabilized, stimulating secondary fattening散户 to continue holding pigs [3] - Demand: Bearish. The slaughter volume from March - April increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating a certain degree of demand recovery [3] - Inventory: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. This week, the near - month basis of pigs converged, and the spread between September and January oscillated strongly [3] - Profit: Neutral. The breeding profit is stable but slightly weak, yet still positive [3] - Valuation: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and the downside space is relatively limited [3] - Macro and Policy: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand in all aspects and a moderately loose monetary policy, which helps boost future pork demand [3] - Investment View: Neutral. The demand for secondary fattening is cautious, the supply side is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to the demand for secondary fattening and feed prices [3] 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - Price Data: There are charts showing the prices of standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and front - three - grade white - striped pork in Henan, as well as their price trends from 2021 - 2025 [5] - Capacity Scale: Charts display the inventory of sample sows, including the quantity, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes, as well as the inventory data of sows from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of new healthy piglets and commercial pig slaughter in five - province samples, along with survival rates [10][22] - Commercial Pig Inventory Structure: Charts show the inventory proportions of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg), as well as the standard - fat price difference, north - south price difference, average slaughter weight, and average post - slaughter weight [27] - Leading Enterprise Slaughter Situation: Charts present the monthly slaughter volumes of companies such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [40] - Slaughter Situation: Charts show daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse operating rate, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as the wholesale volume of white - striped pork in markets like Xinfadi, the arrival volume of white - striped pork in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [45][53] - Profit and Cost: Charts display self - breeding and self - raising profits, profits from purchasing piglets, the pig - grain ratio, and the feed price of fattening pigs [54] 3.3 Pig Capital - Side Data - There are charts showing the basis of different contracts (03, 05, 07, 09) and the price differences between different contracts (03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, 05 - 09) from 2022 - 2025 [59][68]