Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, and the trading strategy for the single - side is to wait and see [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the rise of pulp was mainly due to the macro - sentiment driving the repair of futures valuation, while the spot fundamentals of pulp remained weak. This week, macro - risk fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: It is bearish. In late May, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 49 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp increased by 5 days to 46 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. In May 2025, the shipments of broad - leaf pulp from three South American countries to China and the shipments of coniferous pulp from Canada increased, and the overall supply increased. The current quotes for coniferous pulp in North America/Northern Europe are $680 - 710 per ton, and the import quote for broad - leaf pulp is $500 per ton [3] - Demand: It is bearish. This week, the production of major finished paper products remained basically stable. The rise in pulp prices did not arouse the restocking sentiment of paper mills, and pulp prices still declined [3] - Inventory: It is neutral. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [3] - Trading Profit: It is neutral. The ex - works price in June decreased compared with May, and the import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp was repaired, with the import profit of coniferous pulp in a positive position. As of July 25, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 59.35 yuan per ton [3] - Valuation: It is bearish. This week, under the influence of macro - bullish factors, the futures price of pulp rose significantly, and the basis of broad - leaf pulp weakened to around - 1300~ - 1400 yuan per ton [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures and Spot Price Trends: Last week, the rise of pulp was due to macro - sentiment driving the repair of futures valuation, and the spot fundamentals were weak. This week, macro - risk fluctuations intensified. Pulp spot prices rebounded slightly. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan per ton month - on - month. The price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 5500 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan per ton week - on - week and up 380 yuan per ton month - on - month. The price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4150 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton week - on - week and up 100 yuan per ton month - on - month [6][15] - Foreign Quotes: In May, the foreign quotes for coniferous pulp decreased significantly, and the price of broad - leaf pulp declined. In July, the price of broad - leaf pulp from Chile Arauco was $500 per ton net, and the offer for unbleached pulp Venus was $590 per ton [16][19] - Futures Position Volume: As of July 25, 2025, the total position volume of pulp futures contracts was 305,363 lots, a 10.1% increase from last week; the position volume of the main pulp futures contract was 147,585 lots, a 1.30% increase from last week [20] 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In June, the import volume of pulp increased. The total import volume of pulp was 3.016 million tons, a 4.25% increase. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 722,000 tons, a 4.75% decrease, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.293 million tons, a 7.84% increase [4] - Shipment Volume: In May 2025, the pulp shipment volume was 4.125 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp was 1.68 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp was 2.53 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month increase [38] - Inventory: Port and futures inventories increased. Overseas/European pulp mill inventories also increased. In late May, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 49 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp increased by 5 days to 46 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. In May 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22.0% year - on - year, rising from 1.352 million tons at the end of April to 1.531 million tons [39][45] - Downstream Demand: - Price: As of July 25, 2025, the price of offset paper was 5012 yuan per ton, a 2.2% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5340 yuan per ton, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5600 yuan per ton, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the price of white cardboard was 4010 yuan per ton, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [49] - Production: In June 2025, the production of offset paper was 688,000 tons, a 6% month - on - month increase and a 16% year - on - year decrease; the production of coated paper was 366,200 tons, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease and a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the production of tissue paper increased by 2% month - on - month and 11.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard increased by 2% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [55] - Inventory: As of June 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.83 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 13.3% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.23 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 2.7% year - on - year increase; the inventory of tissue paper was 400,000 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase and a 16.9% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.1914 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase and an 8.2% year - on - year decrease [62] - European and American Demand: In June 2025, the available inventory days of European coniferous pulp were 28.5, a 0.81 increase month - on - month and a 4.47 increase year - on - year; the available inventory days of broad - leaf pulp were 26.7, a 3.94 increase month - on - month and a 5.04 increase year - on - year. As of June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 81.97%, a 0.14% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of paper products was 1.05, a 0.01 increase month - on - month and a 0.06 increase year - on - year [68] 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - Price Difference: As of July 25, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen was - 20 yuan per ton, a 74 - yuan per - ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 400 yuan per ton, a 208 - yuan per - ton decrease from last week. The 9 - 1 month spread of pulp was - 52 yuan per ton, a 113 - yuan per - ton increase from last week [75] - Import Profit: As of July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 59 yuan per ton, a 9 - yuan per - ton increase from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 64 yuan per ton, a 55 - yuan per - ton increase from last week [78] - Coniferous - Broad Leaf Price Difference: As of July 25, 2025, the coniferous - broad leaf price difference in Shandong, China was 1660 yuan per ton, a 217.5 - yuan per - ton decrease from last week. In June 2024, the coniferous - broad leaf import ratio in China was 0.47, a 0.09 decrease from last month [80]
纸浆周报（SP）：警惕本周宏观波动对纸浆的影响-20250728
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-28 05:01