中辉能化观点-20250728

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA/PR, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, methanol, urea, asphalt, and propylene are all rated as "cautiously bearish", except for soda ash which is rated as "wide - range oscillation" and glass, caustic soda which are rated as "short - term correction" [1][2] 2. Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Entering the second half of the peak season, the pressure to increase production rises, and oil prices weaken [1][3] - LPG: Dragged by the cost side, with fair fundamentals, it follows the decline of oil prices [1][6] - L: Market sentiment cools down, with short - term supply pressure increasing and long - term high production limiting the rebound space [1][9] - PP: Market sentiment cools down, with demand lagging and supply under pressure in the short term, and high production pressure in the third quarter restricting the upside [1][12] - PVC: Market sentiment cools down, with weak spot price follow - up, inventory accumulation, and a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [1][15] - PX: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, with macro - policy positives still remaining, and opportunities to buy on dips are worth attention [1][19] - PTA/PR: Recent device changes are relatively small, with expected increased supply pressure in the future and seasonal weakness in demand. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [1][22] - Ethylene glycol: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [1][24] - Glass: Policy expectations cool down, and after a sharp rise, the volatility increases. There is a risk of correction [2][27] - Soda ash: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment is boosted, but there is a large inventory de - stocking pressure, with wide - range oscillations and a short - term correction risk [2][30] - Caustic soda: Supply returns, inventory accumulates, and there is a high - level correction pressure due to the cooling of market sentiment and the narrowing of liquid chlorine subsidies [2][33] - Methanol: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase, demand is relatively good, and the market sentiment has declined. It is recommended to short on rallies [2][36] - Urea: The device operating load remains high, demand is weak domestically but good in exports. There is bottom support from coal prices, and attention should be paid to opportunities to short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The spot market is weak, and attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market conditions: On July 25, WTI decreased by 1.32%, Brent decreased by 1.02%, and SC increased by 0.85% [3] - Basic logic: The oil market shows a situation of weak expectations and strong reality. OPEC's production increase pressure is gradually released, and the key variable on the supply side is the change in US production. In terms of supply, there are new sanctions on Russia, and Norway's oil production has decreased. In terms of demand, China's imports have increased, and IEA's forecast for global oil demand growth has decreased. In terms of inventory, US commercial crude inventory has decreased [4] - Strategy recommendation: In the long - term, there is an oversupply, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, the oil price is weak. It is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. Pay attention to the range of SC [490 - 510] [5] LPG - Market conditions: On July 25, the PG main contract closed at 4037 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [6] - Basic logic: The cost - side oil price is the main drag, while the fundamental situation has marginally improved. Downstream chemical demand has rebounded, the basis is at a high level, and there is some support below. In terms of supply, the commodity volume has decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil have increased. In terms of inventory, refinery inventory has increased slightly, and port inventory has decreased [7] - Strategy recommendation: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to move down. In the short - term, it is weak, and previous long positions should pay attention to risks. Pay attention to the range of PG [3900 - 4000] [8] L - Market conditions: The prices of L contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [10] - Basic logic: The exchange has restricted positions, and the short - term market sentiment has cooled down. The coal - based proportion is 20%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 14%. Spot replenishment willingness is insufficient, inventory has accumulated for 4 consecutive weeks, and the restart of devices is expected to increase production this week. High production in the long - term restricts the rebound space [11] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to take profits on long positions, and the industry can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging. Pay attention to the range of L [7300 - 7500] [11] PP - Market conditions: The prices of PP contracts have increased, and the trading volume has increased slightly [13] - Basic logic: Market sentiment cools down. The coal - based proportion is 19%, and the proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 8%. Demand lags, supply is under pressure, and the warehouse receipt is at a high level in the same period. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. In the third quarter, high production pressure restricts the upside [14] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of PP [7050 - 7250] [14] PVC - Market conditions: The prices of PVC contracts have increased, and the trading volume has decreased [16] - Basic logic: Market sentiment cools down. The proportion of old - fashioned capacity is 11%, the spot price follows up weakly, the basis weakens, and there is short - term policy support at the bottom. Inventory has accumulated for 5 consecutive weeks, and new devices are being commissioned, with a weak fundamental pattern limiting the rebound [17] - Strategy recommendation: Short - term market volatility is large. It is recommended to reduce long positions. Pay attention to the range of V [5200 - 5450] [17] PX - Market conditions: The prices of PX contracts have increased, and the spot price has decreased [19] - Basic logic: There are few changes in domestic and foreign devices. The PXN spread is at a low level in the past five years, and the short - process PX - MX spread has increased. The international device operating rate has declined, and imports are at a low level in the past five years. Demand changes are small, and inventory is still high. There are still positives under the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy, and attention should be paid to opportunities to buy on dips [20] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of PX [6850 - 7120] [21] PTA - Market conditions: The PTA spot price and contract price have increased [22] - Basic logic: There are few device changes recently. There are planned device overhauls and new device commissions in the future. Demand is seasonally weak, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving start - up rates are slightly differentiated. TA social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. There are short - term positive opportunities on the supply side, and attention should be paid to opportunities to go long on dips [23] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of TA [4780 - 4960] [23] Ethylene Glycol - Market conditions: The ethylene glycol spot price and contract price have increased [24] - Basic logic: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are low. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and there is support from low inventory. There is still positive sentiment from the "anti - involution and elimination of backward capacity" policy. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [25] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of EG [4400 - 4550] [26] Glass - Market conditions: The spot price has increased, the futures price has risen sharply, and the basis has weakened [28] - Basic logic: Affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations, the market sentiment is strong, and the cost is expected to rise. The glass fundamentals have improved, with inventory reaching a five - month low. The short - term price center moves up, and it depends on whether there are substantial policies on real estate and capacity in the long - term [29] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of FG [1230 - 1360] [29] Soda Ash - Market conditions: The heavy - soda ash spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, the basis has weakened, and the warehouse receipt has increased [31] - Basic logic: Affected by policy expectations, the market sentiment of glass and coal is strong, boosting the soda ash futures price. However, the alkali plant inventory has reached a record high, and the supply has slightly increased. The downstream support is general, and the market is mainly affected by commodity sentiment [32] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of SA [1310 - 1430] Caustic Soda - Market conditions: The flake caustic soda spot price has increased, the futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened [34] - Basic logic: The supply is approaching saturation, with an increase in the average capacity utilization rate and expected new capacity commissioning. The demand from the main downstream alumina has recovered, but non - aluminum demand is still weak. The export scale has shrunk, and the inventory has increased. There is a pressure for the futures price to correct from a high level [35] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of SH [2510 - 2630] [35] Methanol - Market conditions: The methanol spot price and futures price have increased [36] - Basic logic: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, with the resumption of domestic overhauled devices and high overseas operating loads. The August arrivals are expected to be high. Demand is relatively good, but there is a risk of negative feedback from high prices. The social inventory has decreased but is still low, and the market sentiment has declined [36] - Strategy recommendation: Go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of MA [2400 - 2520] Urea - Basic logic: The urea device operating load remains high, domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. There is bottom support from coal prices. The short - term domestic fundamentals are still loose, and the market sentiment has declined [2] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to opportunities to go short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of UR [1750 - 1780] [2] Asphalt - Basic logic: The cost - side oil price is weak, raw material supply is sufficient, with both supply and demand decreasing and inventory accumulation. The cracking spread is at a high level, and the valuation is high [2] - Strategy recommendation: Short with a light position. Pay attention to the range of BU [3540 - 3640] [2] Propylene - Basic logic: The coal - based proportion is 20%, the spot market is weak, and the market sentiment has cooled down. Attention can be paid to short - spread or short - PP processing fee strategies [2] - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the range of PL [6500 - 6700] [2]