7月政治局会议前瞻与行情推演

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the July Politburo meeting will focus on promoting consumption, strengthening technology, and preventing risks, with new policies on "anti-involution" and detailed "urban renewal" initiatives [1][2][3] - The emphasis on consumption is expected to continue, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and reducing burdens, as well as promoting service consumption [2][3] - The focus on technology will highlight new productive forces and "AI+" as key development directions, with significant events like the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference indicating government support [2][3] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is likely to address low-price disorderly competition among enterprises and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, particularly in sectors like new energy and traditional industries such as steel and petrochemicals [4][20] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" direction has already seen strong market performance since the announcement of related policies, particularly in the steel industry [6][21] - The report indicates that after a period of adjustment, a new market trend may emerge, with "AI+" sectors expected to perform well due to industry catalysts [6][21] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown an upward trend, driven by cyclical sectors and "AI+" themes, with significant gains in industries like construction materials, coal, and steel [8][40] - The report notes that the current A-share equity risk premium (ERP) is at 3.09%, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite [8][31] - The report highlights that the valuation levels of various indices have risen, with the PE valuation percentiles for sectors like real estate and technology reaching high levels [43][44]