市场围绕热点题材炒作

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share mid - year report performance pre - announcements show a sequential improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Industry differentiation is significant, with non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals leading, while the real estate industry chain is under pressure [3]. - The market is mainly trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The July Politburo meeting is yet to be held, and the market is concerned about the policy focus in the second - half economic work [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that China - US economic and trade officials will conduct the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden. - The liquidity is relatively abundant, with the A - share margin trading balance increasing and the trading volume rising. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down, showing a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces - Economic and Corporate Earnings: Neutral. As of July 21, about 28.6% of A - share companies (1547) disclosed their 2025 mid - year report pre - announcements, with a pre - joy rate of 43.7%. Non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals have strong performance expectations, while the real estate industry chain is sluggish [3]. - Macro Policy: Neutral - bullish. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies signal a new round of supply - side reform. The July Politburo meeting is awaited for policy focus [3]. - Overseas Factors: Neutral. The US Treasury Secretary announced China - US trade consultations [3]. - Liquidity: Bullish. The A - share margin trading balance increased, and the trading volume rose [3]. - Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment View: Adjust and go long. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down due to the ebb of hot topics [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Adjust and go long. Risk concerns include domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69% to 4127.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.12% to 2795.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.28% to 6299.6; the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% to 6706.6 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, building materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), non - ferrous metals (6.7%), building decoration (5.6%), and real estate (4.1%) led the gains last week, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [9]. - Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of some stock index futures changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 3.80%, and the open interest increased by 2.76% [13]. - Contract Premium and Discount: As of July 25, the annualized discounts and premiums of different contracts of various stock index futures varied [15]. - Cross - variety Spread: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 86.1% historical quantile level, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 61.7% historical quantile level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: The central bank conducted 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, along with 400 billion yuan of MLF and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan [26]. - Market Liquidity Indicators: As of July 24, the A - share margin trading balance was 1935.73 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading volume accounted for 11.3% of the total market trading volume, at the 96.4% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 277.84 billion yuan compared with the previous week [32]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Earnings - Macroeconomic Indicators: In June 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and other economic indicators showed different trends [35]. - Industry - specific Economic Data: The real estate industry showed a decline in investment, while the manufacturing and consumer industries had their own characteristics. For example, the manufacturing industry maintained a certain growth rate, and the consumer industry had different performances in various sub - sectors [35][38][39]. - PMI Data: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, showing marginal improvements in some sub - indicators [42]. - Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - based Indexes: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE of major broad - based indexes varied [47]. - Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Index: The profitability of different industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed significant differences, with some industries having high growth rates and others in decline [48]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - Recent Macro - policy Trends: A series of meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, and the Central Urban Work Conference focusing on urban development transformation. A package of financial policies has also been announced to support the economy [52][53]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [60][63]. - Trump Team's Statements and Actions: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations. There have also been legal disputes over tariff policies [69][71][73]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.5 times, 11.4 times, 30.7 times, and 41.3 times respectively, at the 73.7%, 81.5%, 71.6%, and 63.9% quantile levels in the past decade [76].