粕类周报：弱现实强预期，关注中美政策变化-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment view of "sideways movement, buy on dips for M01", suggesting that the domestic near - month purchases basically cover the demand, soymeal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the near - month basis is still expected to be under pressure. M09 is expected to move sideways, while M01 is recommended to be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the粕类 market shows a pattern of "weak current situation and strong expectation". Multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, etc., have different impacts on the market. The supply is short - term bearish and medium - term bullish; the demand for soymeal is bullish and for rapeseed meal is bearish; the inventory is bearish; the basis/spread is bearish; the profit is neutral; the valuation is neutral; and the macro and policy factors are bearish [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Short - term bearish, medium - term bullish. This week, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans dropped to 68%, and there is expected dryness in Kansas in the next two weeks, which may be unfavorable for soybean growth, but the overall weather in other areas is normal and conducive to growth. Under the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the domestic soybean crushing volume in July and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons, and the inventory accumulation pressure of soymeal is expected to last until September. The shipping pace from October to January is slow. Due to Sino - Canadian trade policies, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, and domestic rapeseed meal is expected to see inventory reduction before September, with supply uncertainty after September [4]. - Demand: Bullish for soymeal and bearish for rapeseed meal. In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand, but policies aim to control pig inventory and weight. Soymeal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume; rapeseed meal is expected to maintain rigid demand in the aquaculture industry, and the pick - up volume increased this week. In some areas, wheat substitutes for corn, reducing the demand for protein. This week, soymeal trading was normal, while rapeseed meal trading was relatively light [4]. - Inventory: Bearish. The domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level. Soymeal is in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of feed enterprises' soymeal have increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory has declined to a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory is still at a high level with a slow inventory reduction speed [4]. - Basis/Spread: Bearish. The soymeal basis is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the long spread between contracts 3 - 5. The rapeseed meal basis maintains low - level fluctuations [4]. - Profit: Neutral. The Brazilian premium is relatively firm, and the crushing profit fluctuates. The quoted price of Canadian rapeseed has decreased, and the crushing profit is good [4]. - Valuation: Neutral. The futures prices of soymeal and rapeseed meal are at a neutral valuation position [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bearish. National policies aim to control pig inventory and weight and promote the substitution of soymeal, which raises concerns about demand [4]. - Investment View and Trading Strategy: The investment view is "sideways movement, buy on dips for M01". For the trading strategy, the single - side operation is to move sideways and buy M01 on dips, and for arbitrage, it is to wait and see. Risks to be concerned about include policies and weather [4]. 3.2 PART TWO: Fundamental Supply - and - Demand Data of Meal Products - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In July, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 2025/26 season were raised. Data on the inventory - to - consumption ratios of soybeans in countries such as Brazil and Argentina, as well as rapeseeds globally and in Canada, are presented [30][32][38]. - Production and Sales Data: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume data are provided, and the US soybean export sales volume has decreased [49][55][58]. - Price and Exchange Rate Data: Data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean futures gross profit, Canadian rapeseed CFR price, Canadian rapeseed import crushing profit, and the US dollar - to - real exchange rate are presented [66][68][71]. - Import Data: Data on monthly imports of soybeans, rapeseeds, and rapeseed meal in China are presented, showing that the soybean inventory is at a high level, soymeal continues to accumulate inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [73][75][76]. - Trading and Consumption Data: For soymeal, trading is normal and pick - up volume is high; for rapeseed meal, the trading volume and pick - up volume data are also provided. In addition, data on feed monthly output, pig and poultry breeding profits, and prices are presented [99][100][106].