Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the shipping market is highly volatile, and the future freight rate trend is unclear. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. The short - term market may rebound, and long - term contracts should consider taking profits when prices rise and wait for a stable callback to determine the subsequent direction [1][3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Shipping Market Data - On July 25, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1110.57 points, down 3.26% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2400.50 points, down 0.9%; the NCFI for the European route was 1422.9 points, down 1.20%; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1301.81 points, up 2.8%; the NCFI for the US West route was 1120.51 points, down 5.19% [1]. - Also on July 25, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1592.59 points, down 54.31 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1261.35 points, down 3.2%; the SCFI for the European route was 2090 USD/TEU, up 0.53%; the CCFI for the European route was 1787.24 points, down 0.9%; the SCFI for the US West route was 2067 USD/FEU, down 3.50%; the CCFI for the US West route was 880.99 points, down 6.4% [1]. Economic Data in Different Regions - In the Eurozone in June, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4 (expected 49.8, previous 49.4), the preliminary services PMI was 50 (a two - month high, expected 50, previous 49.7), the preliminary composite PMI was 50.2 (expected 50.5, previous 50.2), and the Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2 (expected - 6, previous - 6) [2]. - In June, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point [2]. - In the US in June, the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI was 52 (the same as in May, higher than the expected 51, the highest since February); the preliminary services PMI was 53.1 (lower than the previous 53.7, higher than the expected 52.9, a two - month low); the preliminary composite PMI was 52.8 (lower than the previous 53, higher than the expected 52.1, a two - month low) [2]. Market Situation and Policy Impact - Trump continued to impose tariffs on multiple countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, hitting re - export trade. Some shipping companies announced freight rate increases. The Trump administration postponed the tariff negotiation date to August 1. The spot market price range has been set, with small price increases to test the market, and the futures market rebounded slightly [3]. - On July 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1527.5, down 2.71%, with a trading volume of 42,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 609 lots from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market may rebound. Risk - takers were previously advised to go long lightly on the 2510 contract below 1300 (already with a profit margin of over 300 points). If there is a further pullback today, consider taking profits; it was previously advised to go short lightly on the EC2512 contract [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, the market is mainly in a positive spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try with light positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It was previously advised to take profits when each contract price rises, wait for a stable callback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4]. - Circuit breakers: The circuit breaker for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [4]. - Margin: The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [4]. - Intraday opening limit: The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Geopolitical News - On July 27, the US Middle East envoy said that the stalled cease - fire negotiations in the Gaza Strip were back on track, the Abraham Accords would be further expanded, and the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations would also resume [5]. - On July 27, it was reported that Syrian and Israeli officials held talks in Paris to ease the situation in southern Syria but did not reach an agreement. All parties agreed to continue talks [5].
集运日报:欧盟与美关税出台,胡赛升级海上封锁,近月保持基差修复,今日若回调可考虑加仓,设置好止损-20250728
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo·2025-07-28 05:12