煤焦周度报告20250728：煤矿查超产引爆市场情绪，双焦连续涨停-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coking coal and coke markets showed strong performance last week due to factors such as coal mine over - production inspections, an expanding anti - cut - throat competition scope, and brisk spot trading. The coke 09 contract rose 15.53% week - on - week to 1763, and the coking coal 09 contract rose 35.01% week - on - week to 1259. [4][9] - The fundamentals of both coking coal and coke remain strong. There is an expectation of continued price increases for coke spot. After a short - term correction following the sharp rise, the market is expected to maintain a strong trend. [4][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The futures market had multiple daily limit up movements last week. After a short - term correction, it is expected to continue the strong trend. Spot prices have completed the second and third rounds of increases, and the fourth round has begun. The freight rates for coke transportation are stable with a slight upward trend. [4][7][10] - The coke 09 contract rose 15.53% week - on - week to 1763. Various regional coke prices showed significant increases. For example, the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1030 to 1130 yuan/ton. [4][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprise operations have slightly recovered, but supply restoration is still restricted due to factors such as raw coal shortages, maintenance, and environmental protection. As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises was 73.45%, a 0.44 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the daily coke output was 64.6 tons, a 0.39 - ton increase. [23][25] 3.1.3 Demand - Pig iron production remained at a high level, providing strong support for coke demand. Speculative demand was high, but export profits declined. The daily trading volume of construction steel showed a slight improvement. As of July 25, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.46%, and the daily pig iron output was 242.23 tons, a 0.21 - ton decrease from the previous week. [32][34][37] 3.1.4 Inventory - Coke inventories at coking plants and ports decreased, while those at steel mills increased. The total inventory decreased. As of July 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 7.42 tons to 918.23 tons. [38][40] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprise profitability declined, and the coke futures market profit continued to fall. The average profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 54 yuan/ton, a 11 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The coke 09 futures market profit decreased by 187.9 yuan/ton to 126.3 yuan/ton. [48][50] 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The coke 09 basis decreased by 137.5 to - 342.95 week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 3 to - 48. [52][54] 3.2 Coking Coal Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The futures market had consecutive daily limit up movements last week. After a short - term correction, it is expected to continue the strong trend. Spot prices rebounded significantly. The coking coal 09 contract rose 35.01% week - on - week to 1259. Various types of coking coal prices showed large increases, such as the ex - factory price of Jinzhong medium - sulfur main coking coal increasing from 1100 to 1400 yuan/ton. [4][57][60] 3.2.2 Supply - The supply recovery in production areas was slow, and the operating rate of coal washing plants declined. Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle numbers increased, but the cumulative import of coking coal from January to June decreased year - on - year. As of July 24, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 62.31%, a 0.54 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the daily clean coal output was 52.145 tons, a 1.23 - ton decrease. [63][68][72] 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventories decreased, while downstream inventories increased. The total inventory decreased. As of July 25, the total coking coal inventory decreased by 41.04 tons to 2531.28 tons. [73][75] 3.2.4 Valuation - The premium of coking coal 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly. The coking coal 09 basis decreased by 203 to - 264 week - on - week, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 to - 59.5. [94][96][97]