贵金属日评20250728：美欧达成关税贸易协议，美日达成关税协议提高日本央行加息预期-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage of the US stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest, the increased probability of the Fed's September rate - cut due to Trump's pressure, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and unresolved geopolitical risks may limit the downside of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. 3. Summary of Relevant Information 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: - Shanghai Futures Gold: The closing price was 777.32 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 778.74 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 781.70 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 4.38 compared to the previous day and - 1.42 compared to the previous week. The trading volume and open interest also showed corresponding changes, and the inventory (in ten - gram units) increased by 900 from 28857 to 30258 [1]. - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 3371.30 on 2025 - 07 - 17, 3338.50 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 3345.40 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 32.80 compared to the previous day and - 6.90 compared to the previous week. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - London Gold Spot: The price was 3318.50, with a change of 25 compared to the previous day [1]. - Silver: - Shanghai Futures Silver: The closing price was 9392.00 on 2025 - 07 - 21, 121.00 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 9386.00 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of 6 compared to the previous day. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in ten - gram units) changed accordingly [1]. - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 38.33 on 2025 - 07 - 17, 39.29 on 2025 - 07 - 25, and 38.44 on 2025 - 07 - 24, with a change of - 0.96 compared to the previous day and - 0.11 compared to the previous week. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory (in troy ounces) also showed corresponding changes [1]. - London Silver Spot: The price was 38.74, with a change of - 0.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Price Ratios and Spreads - Gold - to - Silver Price Ratio: The ratios of Shanghai gold/Shanghai silver, New York gold/New York silver, and London gold/London silver had different values and changes [1]. - Spread and Basis: The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts and the basis between spot and futures prices for gold and silver also had corresponding changes [1]. 3.3 Other Commodity and Financial Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil was at 512.90 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was at 68.53 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was at 65.07 dollars/barrel, with corresponding price changes [1]. - Copper: Shanghai copper futures were at 79250 yuan/ton, and LME spot copper was at 9867 dollars/ton, with price fluctuations [1]. - Steel and Iron Ore: Shanghai rebar was at 3356 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was at 802.50 yuan/ton, with price changes [1]. - Interest Rates: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (SHIBOR) for overnight and one - year terms, US 10 - year Treasury nominal and TIPS yields, and inflation - breakeven rates had different values and changes [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index, the central parity rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, and the euro against the Chinese yuan had corresponding fluctuations [1]. - Stock Indices: Major global stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, UK FTSE 100, French CAC40, German DAX, Nikkei 225, and South Korean Composite Index had different price movements [1]. 3.4 Important News - Trade Agreements: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff trade agreement, with the EU increasing investment in the US by 600 billion dollars and purchasing 750 billion dollars of energy products. The US and Japan reached an agreement, and the Bank of Japan may restart interest rate hikes this year [1]. - Legislation: The US House of Representatives passed a stablecoin - related bill allowing pension funds to invest in gold and digital currencies [1]. - Inflation and Unemployment: Import tariffs pushed up US consumer - end inflation in June, and the initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected [1]. - Central Bank Policies: The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, the Bank of England cut the key rate in May, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates in January and may reduce bond purchases in 2026 [1].