Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the weekly report on live pigs and corn from July 22 - 28, 2025, published by Caida Futures [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the live pig futures rose significantly and then fell back. The LH2509 contract closed at 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous week's settlement price [5] - As of July 25, the self - breeding and self - raising live pig breeding profit was 62.16 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 28.73 yuan/head; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 52.73 yuan/head; the pig - grain ratio was 6.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15 [5] Price Trend and Policy Impact - The national live pig spot price rose first and then fell last week. At the beginning of the week, affected by the typhoon, the breeding side reduced supply and resisted price cuts. As the weather impact weakened, group enterprises increased their slaughter, and terminal demand was weak, causing the price to decline slightly [5] - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on promoting the high - quality development of the live pig industry, proposing to implement capacity control measures, reduce the number of breeding sows, and control fat pig slaughter weight. This news boosted the live pig futures to break through 15,000, reaching a new high for the year [5] Short - term Outlook - In the short term, farms have completed their slaughter plans well, but demand is weak, which restricts the live pig market. Prices may fluctuate, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [5] Group 3: Corn Market Futures and Spot Market - Last week, the corn futures rose and then fell back. The C2509 contract closed at 2,311 yuan/ton, up 0.26% from the previous week's settlement price [6] - The national average corn spot price was 2,407.84 yuan/ton, up 2.84 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] Port Prices - As of July 25, in Jinzhou Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 - 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Bayuquan Port, the price of corn with 15% moisture and 720 bulk density was 2,290 - 2,310 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the flat - hatch price of 15% moisture corn was 2,320 - 2,330 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6] - In Guangdong Shekou Port, the transaction price of 15% moisture bulk corn was 2,410 - 2,430 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade corn was 2,450 - 2,470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [6] Industrial Consumption and Inventory - From July 17 - 23, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.0624 million tons of corn, a decrease of 38,100 tons from the previous week [7] - The processing volume of 60 corn starch enterprises was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 36,300 tons from the previous week; the weekly corn starch output was 235,200 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 45.46% [7] - The operating rate of the DDGS industry was 38.63%, up 0.29% from the previous week; the weekly production of DDGS was 78,620 tons, an increase of 590 tons from the previous week [7] - As of July 23, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.005 million tons, a decrease of 6.21% [7] - As of July 25, the total corn inventory in the four northern ports was about 2.18 million tons, and the corn inventory in Guangdong ports was 950,000 tons [7] Market Outlook - The national corn spot market stopped falling and rose slightly last week. After continuous grain sales and a decrease in imported corn auctions, traders were reluctant to sell, and enterprise purchase prices mainly increased [8] - Corn starch enterprises are entering the summer maintenance stage, with a significant decline in the operating rate and a continuous decrease in corn consumption. Feed enterprises are digesting previous inventories, and their demand for corn procurement is relatively weak [8] - Overall, trader inventories have decreased significantly, the overall shipment pace has slowed down, market supply has decreased, and the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened. However, considering the limited restocking demand of downstream enterprises, corn prices are expected to stabilize, and the rebound space of the futures is limited, with short - term low - level fluctuations expected [8]
生猪期货冲高回落，玉米期货反弹承压
Cai Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 06:21