新销售政策要求下多晶硅价格大涨，后续产能出清可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the photovoltaic industry, including GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) and New Special Energy (1799 HK) [5]. Core Insights - The recent surge in polysilicon prices is attributed to new sales policies that require prices not to fall below production costs, leading to a significant increase in prices from 34,400 RMB/ton on June 25 to 46,800 RMB/ton on July 23, and futures prices reaching 51,000 RMB/ton on July 25 [3]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards and the introduction of green electricity consumption ratios are expected to benefit granular silicon, as only granular silicon meets the new stringent standards [3][2]. - There is a growing expectation in the market for a capacity storage plan for polysilicon, which could lead to a supply-demand balance and prices potentially exceeding 60,000 RMB/ton [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Policy Impact - New policies have led to a significant increase in polysilicon prices, with the N-type raw material price rising sharply due to the requirement that sales prices cannot be below production costs [3]. - The introduction of a green electricity premium of 0.03 RMB/kWh and a 30% green electricity consumption ratio is expected to further enhance the cost advantage of low-energy granular silicon [2]. Energy Consumption Standards - The revised energy consumption standards for polysilicon are set to tighten significantly, with new levels proposed at ≤5/6/7.5 kgce/kg for different grades, which will likely eliminate outdated production capacities [3]. - The potential implementation of tiered electricity pricing based on energy consumption levels could further enhance the cost advantage of granular silicon by 500 RMB/ton for every 0.01 RMB/kWh increase [3]. Market Expectations - There is a consensus in the market that leading polysilicon companies may consolidate remaining capacities and shut down less efficient production, which aligns with the interests of various stakeholders [3]. - The report highlights GCL-Poly Energy as a preferred investment due to its profitability and alignment with policy directions, while expressing caution regarding the photovoltaic glass segment due to the lack of similar supportive policies [3].