原油周报（SC）：短期市场消息寡淡，油价维持震荡表现-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bearish, indicating that the price center will move down in the medium to long term [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market news is scarce, and oil prices maintain a volatile performance. The expectation of the summer consumption peak season is gradually weakening, and in the medium to long term, the supply - demand situation still shows a loosening trend, leading to a downward shift in the price center [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - Price Changes: SC crude oil decreased by 3.59% to 512.9 yuan/barrel, Brent crude oil dropped by 2.35% to 67.6 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by 1.45% to 65.07 dollars/barrel [3][4]. - Inventory Changes: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels to 419 million barrels, with a decline of 0.75%. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels [3]. - Futures Warehouse Receipt Changes: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 27.36% to 110,980 tons [4]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - Market Performance: This week, oil prices closed lower, reaching a three - week low. The market is worried about the weakening US economy, and the expectation of the summer consumption peak season is cooling. OPEC+ may increase production at the next meeting, resulting in a generally weak oil price performance [6]. - Spread Analysis: The monthly spread weakened, while the internal - external spread remained stable. The forward curve showed a relatively strong performance at the near - end. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of jet fuel remained stable [9][21][29]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Supply Side - OPEC and Non - OPEC Countries: In June 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production increased compared to May [59]. - US Production: As of the week ending July 18, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, while crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day [84]. - Demand Side - US Demand: The refinery operating rate rose by 1.60% to 95.50%, and the implied demand for gasoline and distillates increased [122]. - China Demand: The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased [131]. - Inventory Side - US Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [3][96]. 3.4 Macro - finance - The US dollar index rebounded, and the yield of US Treasury bonds increased. The EU and the US are expected to reach a framework trade agreement, and the third - round China - US trade negotiation will focus on extending the tariff truce period and geopolitical issues [3]. 3.5 CFTC Positions - The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [154].