Workflow
美国关税谈判喜忧参半,国内呈现反内卷交易
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-28 06:30

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Impact Factors and Main Logic - Review: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - Overseas: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - Domestic: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - Commodities Viewpoint: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US Employment: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - US Housing Market: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - Eurozone Economy: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - Tariff Policy: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - LPR: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - Market Situation: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - Agricultural and Energy Sectors: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial开工率: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - Automobile Sales: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - Commodity Prices: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].