Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Paper pulp futures are mainly influenced by macro - sentiment and will fluctuate widely. The supply - demand fundamentals remain in a stalemate, with high port inventory pressure, abundant supply of circulating goods, limited improvement in downstream demand, and low operating rates. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate widely in the range of 5260 - 5590 this week [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Coniferous pulp prices remained relatively stable, while broad - leaf pulp prices rose slightly. Among them, the price of broad - leaf pulp such as Jin Yu, Xiao Niao, and A Er Pai increased, with increases ranging from 1.22% to 1.74%. Coniferous pulp prices such as Yin Xing, Kai Li Pu, and Bei Mu remained unchanged. Chemical mechanical pulp and bleached kraft pulp prices remained stable, while reed pulp prices dropped significantly by 15.22% [11][14]. - Pulp Futures Review: The pulp futures contract SP2509 continued to oscillate upwards last week, closing at 5520 yuan/ton, up 4.31% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.936 million lots, an increase of 689,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 305,000 lots, an increase of 28,000 lots [15]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: The basis discount of softwood pulp and the closing price of the futures main contract was 400 yuan/ton, and the discount decreased by 228 yuan/ton compared with last week [19]. - Log Futures Review: The main log futures contract 2509 showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, closing at 830 yuan/cubic meter, up 0.18% for the week. The weighted trading volume was 164,000 lots, a decrease of 23,900 lots, and the weighted open interest was 31,500 lots, a decrease of 9900 lots [20]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week, pulp production was 482,000 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from the previous week. Among them, broad - leaf pulp production was 205,000 tons, and chemical mechanical pulp production was 210,000 tons, both showing a decline [22]. - Capacity Utilization of Broad - Leaf Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broad - leaf pulp was 75.8%, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 88.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous week [27]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In June 2025, domestic pulp production was 2.072 million tons, a decrease of 3.36% from the previous month. Among them, wood pulp production was 1.746 million tons, a decrease of 7.69%, and non - wood pulp production was 326,000 tons, a decrease of 2.69% [28]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of chemical mechanical pulp was 85.0%, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month, and the capacity utilization rate of broad - leaf pulp was 80.6%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous month [32]. - Monthly Production Profit: In June 2025, the production profit of broad - leaf pulp was 493.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.31% from the previous month, and the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 376.9 yuan/ton, a reduction in losses of 41.1 yuan/ton [36]. - Pulp Imports: In June 2025, pulp imports were 3.0306 million tons, an increase of 0.48% from the previous month and 16.12% from the same period last year. The cumulative imports from January to June were 18.5777 million tons, an increase of 4.2% from the same period last year [37]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 279,000 tons, a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.2%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous week [39]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, the production of coated paper was 79,000 tons, an increase of 1.28% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.0%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous week. The production of offset paper was 196,000 tons, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 55.1%, a decrease of 1.1% from the previous week [43]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 311,000 tons, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous week. The production of corrugated paper was 462,300 tons, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 61.97%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The production of containerboard was 594,000 tons, a decrease of 1.02% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.6%, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous week [46][49]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained basically stable, the price of white cardboard decreased slightly, and the prices of whiteboard paper, corrugated paper, and containerboard remained stable [50][54][56]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tissue paper decreased by 1.5% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard increased by 2.58% from the previous month, the capacity utilization rate of offset paper increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of coated paper decreased slightly. The actual domestic pulp consumption decreased slightly [60][64][67]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend, with a total inventory of 2.143 million tons in mainstream ports, a decrease of 1.74% from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port increased by 0.96%, the inventory in Changshu Port decreased by 5.26%, and the inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 5.36% [70][73]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Currently, pulp futures warehouse receipts are 243,600 tons, an increase of 1.43% from the previous week. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong area are 224,500 tons, an increase of 1.8% from the previous week [74].
纸浆：受宏观情绪主导，纸浆期货宽幅震荡
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-28 06:41