贵金属周报：冲高受阻回落，重新陷入整理-20250728

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, the gold price soared and then dropped significantly. The New York gold price fell back to $3,338 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold price dropped to 773 yuan per gram [3] 2. Interest Rate Expectations - On July 24, Trump met with Fed Chairman Powell to discuss interest rates. Powell and most Fed policymakers have been cautious about rate cuts due to concerns about the lagged impact of Trump's tariff hikes on inflation [4] - According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the market expects a 95.9% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and a 58.4% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September. Traders expect the Fed to cut rates more aggressively next year, with a projected 76 - basis - point cut [4] 3. Tariff Situation - Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most other countries but would be willing to abandon the tariff clause if major countries open their markets to the US. He also mentioned sending nearly 200 tariff letters and reaching tariff agreements with Japan and the EU (15% tariff on the EU) [7] - Overall, Trump's tariff war has less impact than expected, and the market has adapted. The US stock market has continued to rise, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined [7] 4. Economic Data - As of the week ending July 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 4,000 to 217,000, falling for the sixth consecutive week, the longest consecutive decline since 2022. This reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates in the short term, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [7] 5. Geopolitical Situation - Sino - US relations have eased, and the impact of the global tariff war has weakened. The new conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has limited impact on the financial market due to their small economic scale and the possibility of peace talks [7] 6. Market Outlook - Risk - assets such as the stock market are favored again, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined, putting pressure on the gold price. The gold price on the weekly chart has soared and then dropped significantly, lacking upward momentum in the short term and returning to a box - consolidation pattern [7]