【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】反内卷推升权益商品，债期承压-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current bond market stabilization is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stable trend in the capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields after previous adjustments [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views - This week, treasury bond futures declined significantly. The 30 - year main contract fell by about 2%, and the 10 - year contract fell by over 0.5%. The short - end showed relative resistance. The market focus was on the commodity market, where commodities started a bullish trend. The rise in commodities may break the deflation trend, improve corporate profitability, and lead to a recovery in risk appetite. The increase in capital prices and marginal tightening of liquidity further intensified the bond market correction, and bond funds faced redemption pressure [4]. - Looking forward, the current decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the attractiveness of bond yields. In the long - run, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the bond bull market logic may persist [8]. 3.2 PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various liquidity - related data, including open - market operations (amount and price), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, deposit - related interest rates, and bond yield data, but does not provide specific analysis based on these data [11][12][14]. 3.3 PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds, but does not offer specific analysis based on these data [42][51][59][65].