Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, regulatory tightening has increased market volatility. The glass market showed a strong overall trend this month, with significant rebounds driven by raw material support and policy stimuli, but ended the month with a sharp decline due to exchange supervision following rapid short - term price increases [1][5]. - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47]. Summary by Directory Glass Market Review - This month, the glass market showed a strong overall trend. Driven by raw material support and continuous policy stimuli, glass prices rebounded significantly. However, at the end of the month, rapid short - term price increases led to exchange supervision and a sharp decline [5]. Valuation - Basis - The average spot price in July was 1,103 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared to 1,063 yuan/ton in June. The price fluctuated upward. The average price of the futures 09 contract in July was 1,108 yuan/ton, an increase of 114 yuan/ton compared to 994 yuan/ton in June. The basis narrowed slightly, and market sentiment cooled slightly at the end of the month [10]. Valuation - Arbitrage - The average spread between the main soda ash and glass contracts weakened compared to the previous month, and there is still downward pressure in the later period. The 9 - 1 spread of glass slightly narrowed, and the sentiment for far - month contracts increased significantly. The overall C - structure was maintained [15]. Valuation - Profit - The average production profit of each production line fluctuated at a low level, and the industry's pressure continued. Coal - based production may gradually become the cost reference, but short - term industry profits slightly recovered. In the medium - term, the exit trend may still continue [20]. Drivers - Capacity and Operation - Overall, capacity and operation remained stable at a low level [21]. Drivers - Real Estate Front - end - The real estate front - end demand has not improved significantly. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year [46]. Drivers - Real Estate Back - end There is no specific summarized information provided in the text. Drivers - Automobile - There are data on monthly and cumulative year - on - year changes in automobile production and sales, but no specific analysis is provided in the text. Drivers - Inventory - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. Drivers - Apparent Consumption (Estimated) There is no information provided about the drivers - apparent consumption (estimated). Viewpoints and Strategies - The supply side in July changed little from the previous month, with supply fluctuating in a low - level range in the first half of the year. Although industrial profits have slightly recovered and industry expectations have improved due to policy stimuli, the industry's exit trend may slow down temporarily [46]. - The demand side in the real estate front - end shows no obvious signs of improvement. The cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction from January to June was - 20.0%, slightly better than - 23.7% in the same period last year. The completion data remains low, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of - 14.8% from January to June, also an improvement from - 21.8% in the same period last year. Attention should be paid to post - rainy - season restocking demand [46]. - The national total glass inventory increased slightly this month, with a slower inventory accumulation rate compared to previous years. There may be some downstream restocking after the rainy season, leading to a slight reduction in upstream inventory [46]. - The glass main contract may start the position - shifting phase next month, and attention should be paid to the corresponding inter - month spread fluctuations. In terms of strategies, recent regulatory tightening may intensify the volatility of near - month contracts on a single - side basis. In terms of arbitrage, the spread between soda ash and glass may continue to narrow in the medium - to - long - term [47].
近期监管趋严，短期波动加大
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-28 06:38