贵金属期货周报-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the US made progress in tariff trade, reaching tariff agreements with countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. China and the US will hold the third round of economic and trade consultations, and market risk sentiment has declined, weakening the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, tariff trade policies still carry risks, leading to an oscillatory adjustment in precious metal prices. US President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates during a visit to the Fed building for renovation, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence. COMEX gold futures rose and then fell, while COMEX silver futures maintained an oscillatory trend [2]. - Capital: Last week, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold and silver [2]. - Strategy: The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, continuing to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver has a slight upward trend in the short - term, and it is advisable to look for long - entry opportunities. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy when the price drops sharply to the lower edge of the oscillatory range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key indicators' price changes: The spot price of London gold decreased by 0.35% to $3343.50 per ounce, COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 0.39% to 777.32 yuan per gram. The spot price of London silver increased by 1.22% to $38.74 per ounce, COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose by 1.28% to 9392 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Gold - silver ratio: The gold - silver ratios of both the domestic and international markets decreased compared to last week, and both continued to repair to around 80 - 85, but were significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper in the US may drive enterprises to use silver as a substitute, increasing silver demand [10]. - Price spreads between domestic and international markets: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and international markets increased compared to last week. Affected by the US tariff trade policy and the Fed's independence, precious metals showed an oscillatory trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - US dollar index: Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, causing a slight decline in the US dollar index, which supported the precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury real yields: Last week, the real yield of the 5 - year US Treasury increased slightly, while that of the 10 - year US Treasury decreased. Affected by the changing expectations of US tariff policies and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metal prices oscillated [17]. - Inflation and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.8% and slightly lower than the expected 3%. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term, and the market expects a 62.4% probability of an interest - rate cut in September [22]. - Key US economic data: - PMI: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, slightly higher than the expected 48.8, and the service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than the expected 50.6 [25]. - Retail sales: In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, reversing the decline in May. Core retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.5% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [25]. - Employment data: In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, far lower than the expected increase of 95,000. Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000 [31]. - Fed's independence: Trump's visit to the Fed and pressure on Powell to cut interest rates, as well as a lawsuit against the Fed and the criticism from the US Treasury Secretary, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [34]. - US tariff trade: The US has made progress in tariff trade, but the policy remains uncertain. The US has reached tariff agreements with some countries, and is approaching the August 1 tariff deadline. The 50% tariff on copper may bring positive factors to silver [34]. - Central bank gold purchases: 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold investments in the next 12 - 24 months. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks net - purchased 244 tons of gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which supports the price of gold in the long - term [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge funds: As of the week ending July 22, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 39,900 lots to 253,000 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 12,000 lots to 60,600 lots [38]. - ETFs: As of July 25, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons to 957.09 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 572.22 tons to 15,230.43 tons, indicating an accelerated inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - Gold and silver inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 37.7624 million ounces, a 1.53% increase from the previous week, and COMEX silver inventories were 500.3207 million ounces, a 0.62% increase. The 50% tariff on copper may drive up the price of silver due to its industrial demand [43]. - Gold and silver demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, global total gold demand increased slightly year - on - year. The global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [46]. - Key events to watch this week: This week, important events include the third round of China - US economic and trade consultations, the release of US economic data such as PCE, core PCE, and the July non - farm payroll report, the Fed's July interest - rate meeting, and the approaching August 1 tariff deadline [48][49].