利率或筑顶：债市调整原因再审视

Group 1 - The report suggests that the bond market interest rates may have reached a peak after an unexpected adjustment, driven by three main factors: tight liquidity, rising inflation expectations due to "anti-involution," and the impact of a rising equity market on the bond market [4][7][11] - The analysis indicates that the tight liquidity is not a causal factor for the bond market adjustment but rather a synchronous relationship, with the central bank's recent operations showing an intention to alleviate the negative feedback loop [4][7][11] - The report anticipates that the inflation expectations driven by "anti-involution" will not persist for long, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unlikely to turn positive within the year, leading to a gradual calming of market expectations [4][7][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the equity market is expected to continue rising, but this does not necessarily imply an increase in interest rates. The upward momentum in the equity market will likely return to expectations of improved national governance and technological leadership in economic transformation [8][11] - The report recommends gradual participation in liquid interest rate bonds, such as 10-year government bonds yielding over 1.7% and 30-year government bonds yielding over 1.95%, while advising caution with less liquid credit bonds due to potential downside risks [11][12] - The report notes that the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.7%, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various maturities [35][36][41]