钢矿周度报告2025-07-28：反内卷持续发酵，黑色高位运行-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution trend continues to ferment, and the black market remains at a high level. For steel, the spot price has risen significantly, and the futures price has rebounded from a low level. The supply shows a marginal decline, with the growth of short - process rebar supply and the decline of plate production. Demand is affected by factors such as high - temperature weather and the automotive off - season, with the direct demand for building materials falling and the demand for plates weakening. The inventory of building materials has a slower growth rate, and the plate inventory has a slight accumulation. For iron ore, the price has risen strongly, the supply has tightened, the demand has slightly declined, the port inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream inventory has also accumulated. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market is difficult to reverse, and the callback space for the black market is expected to be limited. The strategy for both steel and iron ore is to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price has risen again, with the 10 - contract rising 209 to 3356, and the spot price in the East China region reaching 3430 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 180 yuan. The hot - rolled coil price also shows an upward trend [10][13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 83.46%, remaining flat compared to last week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate is 90.81%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points. The daily average hot - metal output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills is 55.49%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points. The total output of the five major steel products is 866.97 million tons, a decrease of 1.22 million tons. Rebar production has increased slightly by 2.9 million tons, mainly contributed by the short - process, while hot - rolled coil production has decreased by 3.65 million tons [17][26][29]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 16th to July 22nd, the capacity utilization rate of 506 concrete mixing stations is 7.04%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points week - on - week, and the shipment volume is 140.95 million cubic meters, a decrease of 3.13%. The terminal demand has declined due to high - temperature weather and typhoons, but the speculative demand has increased significantly due to the rising price. The consumption of building materials has increased by 2.7% week - on - week, and the consumption of plates has decreased by 1.7%. The domestic automotive market is in the off - season, and the upstream production has weakened [32][36]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast - furnace steel mill profitability rate is 63.64%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points. The average cost of 76 independent electric - arc - furnace building - steel mills is 3342 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton, and the average profit is - 33 yuan/ton, while the off - peak electricity profit is 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [40]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products is 1336.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.16 million tons. The rebar social inventory accumulation rate has slowed down, and the factory inventory has decreased by 7.43 million tons, while the social inventory has increased by 2.8 million tons. The hot - rolled coil factory inventory has increased by 0.69 million tons, and the social inventory has increased by 1.56 million tons [44][47]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 - contract basis is 96, a narrowing of 27 compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil basis is 24, a narrowing of 26 [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread is - 43, a repair of 1 compared to last week, with little change [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread - The futures plate - rebar spread is 151, a narrowing of 12 compared to last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining flat. The current spread is at a neutral - high level, with limited profit space [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore 09 - contract has risen 17.5 to 802.5, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port has risen 7 to 780 yuan/ton. The market sentiment is bullish, and port transactions have increased [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - From July 14th to July 20th, the global iron ore shipment volume is 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil is 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia is 1629.4 million tons, a decrease of 108.9 million tons, and the shipment volume to China is 1443.6 million tons, an increase of 13.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Brazil is 922.6 million tons, an increase of 102.1 million tons. The 19 - port shipment volume from Australia and Brazil is 2479.0 million tons, a decrease of 19.2 million tons. The Chinese 47 - port arrival volume is 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons [64][67][70]. 3.2.3 Rigid Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.21 million tons, and the iron ore demand has slightly declined [73]. 3.2.4 Speculative Demand - The average daily port transaction volume is 100.3 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons, and downstream steel mills are replenishing inventory normally [77]. 3.2.5 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 ports is 14395.68 million tons, an increase of 14.17 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume is 329.33 million tons, a decrease of 9.43 million tons. The number of ships at the port is 102, an increase of 4 [80]. 3.2.6 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder for 114 steel mills is 2794.77 million tons, an increase of 75.95 million tons [84]. 3.2.7 Shipping - The shipping freight from Western Australia to China is 10.48 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.85 US dollars, and the shipping freight from Brazil to China is 24.07 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.93 US dollars [87]. 3.2.8 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread is 30, a narrowing of 2 compared to last week. The 09 - contract is at a discount of 1.7, showing a near - flat state between the futures and spot prices [90].