海通证券晨报-20250728

Group 1: Strategy - The main contradiction in investor expectations has shifted from economic cycle fluctuations to changes in discount rates, with the decline in the risk-free rate being a key driver for the upward adjustment of valuations in the Chinese stock market in 2025 [2][4] - Investors should adjust their understanding of the main contradictions and increase their allocation to China [2] Group 2: Macro Overview - Progress in US-Japan trade negotiations has boosted global market sentiment, leading to a general rise in global stock markets [2][8] - The US real estate market remains weak under high interest rates and uncertainty, while manufacturing PMI has weakened but the service sector remains strong, indicating economic resilience [2][8] Group 3: Non-Metallic Building Materials - Puyang's announcement of a strategic cooperation agreement with Greeenmei indicates an unexpected procurement scale of 500,000 tons, confirming customer recognition of active magnesium oxide [3][16] - The penetration in the nickel extraction field is expected to accelerate, and profitability may exceed expectations due to customer expansion [3][16] Group 4: Insurance Industry - The recent announcement of a new research value for life insurance has triggered a reduction in the preset interest rate, which is expected to improve the risk of interest spread losses [3][19] - Some insurance companies have announced plans to switch to new products in September, which is beneficial for improving interest spread risk [3][21]