航运衍生品数据日报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the EC market is downward. It is expected that the freight rates on the European route will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of a rate hike in August, and even if a hike is called, the success rate will be low. Freight rates are about to enter a rounded - top trend, and an accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Present Values and Changes: The present values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) and China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) are 1647 and 1261 respectively, with daily changes of - 3.30% and - 3.23%. SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are at 2067, 1301, 3378, and 2090 respectively, with changes of - 3.50%, 2.76%, - 6.48%, and 0.53%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are at 2400 and 2418, with changes of - 0.87% and - 4.35% [4]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - Contract Prices and Changes: For contracts EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the present values are 1518.0, 2212.6, 1527.5, 1720.2, 1518.8, and 1361.7 respectively, with changes of 0.74%, - 1.44%, - 3.56%, - 3.35%, - 2.78%, and - 1.47% [4][5]. - Contract Positions and Changes: The present positions of EC2606, EC2508, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604 are 788, 8358, 49977, 8520, 4479, and 5525 respectively, with changes of - 53, - 1326, - 609, - 221, 152, and 12 [5]. - Monthly Spread and Changes: The present monthly spreads for 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 are 685.1, - 192.7, and 358.5 respectively, with changes of 24.1, 3.3, and - 39.4 [5]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - Price Announcements by Shipping Companies: ONE's August upper - ten - day list price for large containers remains the same as in late July, and CM4 reduced prices at the end of July. MSK's August first - week freight rate is lower than the current selling price, and Maersk's overtime ship opening also affected the market [8]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short contracts 10 on rallies and hold the long - 12 short - 4 calendar spread [9].