聚酯数据日报-20250728

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment for commodities has turned positive, the PTA production capacity supply in China has contracted, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. The market port inventory has been reduced, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the ethylene glycol price. The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the upward trend of commodity sentiment. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the ethylene glycol price. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, and the polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the profits of downstream weaving have shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price increased from 508.9 yuan/barrel on July 24, 2025, to 512.9 yuan/barrel on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 4 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - Related Data: PTA - SC spread increased from 1151.8 yuan/ton to 1208.7 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3114 to 1.3243. CFR China PX price increased from 856 to 874, PX - naphtha spread increased from 289 to 294. PTA主力期价 increased from 4850 yuan/ton to 4936 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4815 yuan/ton to 4895 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 206.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 236.8 yuan/ton to 223.6 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from 0 to - 8. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 30746 to 30740 [2]. - MEG - Related Data: MEG主力期价 increased from 4485 yuan/ton to 4545 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 84.67 yuan/ton to - 78.86 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 increased from 4530 yuan/ton to 4582 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 increased from 58 to 60 [2]. - Industrial Chain开工情况: PX开工率 remained at 77.29%, PTA开工率 remained at 80.59%, MEG开工率 increased from 57.48% to 57.74%, and the polyester load remained at 87.01% [2]. - Polyester Product Data: POY150D/48F price increased from 6685 to 6710, POY现金流 decreased from - 199 to - 260. FDY150D/96F price increased from 6930 to 7000, FDY现金流 decreased from - 454 to - 470. DTY150D/48F price increased from 7860 to 7895, DTY现金流 decreased from - 224 to - 275. The long - filament production and sales decreased from 44% to 29%. 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased from 6650 to 6705, 涤短现金流 decreased from 116 to 85, and the short - fiber production and sales increased from 68% to 78%. The semi - light slice price increased from 5865 to 5925, 切片现金流 decreased from - 119 to - 145, and the slice production and sales increased from 86% to 130% [2]. 2. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that stopped for maintenance around May 6 has been restarted after feeding materials. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently stopped for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].