碳酸锂周报：政策指引锂价偏强-20250728

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore supply remains abundant, and the high - frequency supply stays at a high level driven by prices. The lithium salt market has a cold trading atmosphere, and downstream players doubt the sustainability of high - priced lithium. However, policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission have led to concerns about supply disruptions, causing prices to rise without obvious fundamental improvement [4]. - On the disk, driven by relevant policies and rumors, the positions expanded significantly to nearly 500,000 lots during the reporting period, while the exchange warehouse receipts were more than 10,000. The risk of the virtual - to - real ratio is high, and the position risk expectation rises [4]. - With policy guidance, lithium prices may still have room to rise. Policy - wise, the decision - making layer’s determination to address the "involution" phenomenon boosts market sentiment. On the disk, despite the false news of the suspension of the review of Jiangxi lithium mines, the positions increased significantly, and the market sentiment remained strong. Fundamentally, the upstream has a strong production - increasing expectation driven by high prices, while the downstream has a weak willingness to replenish inventory actively. The lithium market is expected to be guided by policy expectations, and prices may fluctuate strongly [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%), imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%), and domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 6.91%, 4.83%, and 4.83% respectively. The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price rose by 15.09%, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 100%. The lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1.14% [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of July 25, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipt scale was 11,996 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,580 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 491,000 lots [8]. - The weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons as of July 25, an increase of 235 tons from the previous period. Rumors of the suspension of the review of Jiangxi lithium mines led to concerns about resource disruptions, causing lithium prices to rise and positions to expand by more than 100,000 lots. Driven by high prices, upstream supply will remain high [8]. - In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a decrease of 25% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year. The import volume from Chile and Argentina decreased. In June, the shipment volume from Chile to China increased slightly, but it was still at a low level [9]. - In May, the import volume of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a decrease of 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume from Australia and South Africa increased, while that from Zimbabwe decreased significantly [10][11]. - In terms of downstream demand, the prices of cathode materials increased, but the trading was general. Material factories were still waiting and watching high - priced lithium, and the willingness to stock up was not high. In the new energy vehicle market, the consumption growth rate slowed down, and the potential consumption needs to be explored [12][13]. - As of July 25, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 119,616 tons, a decrease of about 1,374 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory and market inventory decreased, while the exchange inventory increased [14]. This Week's Outlook - With policy guidance, lithium prices may still have room to rise. Policy - wise, the draft amendment to the Price Law boosts market sentiment. On the disk, the market sentiment remains strong. Fundamentally, the upstream has a strong production - increasing expectation, while the downstream has a weak willingness to replenish inventory actively. The lithium market is expected to be guided by policy expectations, and prices may fluctuate strongly [15]. Industry News - Argentina rejected Ganfeng Lithium's application for the second - phase expansion of the Mariana project. Meanwhile, Galan's lithium project was approved [16]. - Yongxing Materials responded that its production and operation were normal, without production reduction or suspension [16]. - Yichun Yinli plans to stop production for equipment maintenance to reduce costs and ensure safety [16].