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商贸零售行业跟踪周报：八马茶业招股书拆解：高端茶饮龙头或将登陆港交所-20250728
Soochow Securities·2025-07-28 08:04

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next six months [5]. Core Viewpoints - Baima Tea, a leader in the high-end tea market, is expected to soon list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone for the company [8][9]. - The company has shown steady growth in revenue and profit margins, with 2023/2024 Q1-3 revenues of 2.122 billion and 1.647 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 17% and 1% respectively [13][16]. - The tea market in China is projected to grow, with the high-end tea segment expected to outpace overall market growth, indicating a trend towards premiumization in consumer preferences [32][33]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The tea market in China was valued at 334.7 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from 2019 to 2023, and is expected to maintain a CAGR of 5.0% from 2023 to 2028 [32]. - The high-end tea market is projected to grow from 82.7 billion yuan in 2019 to 105.2 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.2% [32]. Company Performance - Baima Tea's revenue and profit margins have been consistently increasing, with gross margins reaching 55% in 2024 Q1-3 [16][19]. - The company has successfully expanded its online sales, which accounted for 34% of total revenue in 2024 Q1-3, up from 16% in 2019 [19][21]. - The number of offline stores has also increased, with total stores rising from 2,931 at the end of 2022 to 3,498 by 2024 Q3, while the proportion of franchise stores has grown significantly [25][30]. Market Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences towards high-end tea products, with Baima Tea's product sales structure showing that tea products accounted for 88% of total sales in 2024 Q1-3 [30]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence and product offerings to cater to younger consumers and women, reflecting a strategic shift in target demographics [8][9].