中原期货晨会纪要-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive market analysis, covering macro - economic indicators, various commodity futures, and A - share market trends. It also includes macro - news and specific views on different product sectors. For the commodity market, most products show price fluctuations, and the market situation is complex with multiple influencing factors. In the A - share market, the overall trend is upward, but there are short - term fluctuations and uncertainties, and market attention is focused on several important events and meetings [2][7][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro Indicators: The Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 all rose on July 28, 2025, with increases of 0.465%, 0.239%, and 0.397% respectively. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.086%. SHIBOR overnight decreased by 7.034%, and the dollar index dropped by 0.079%. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - External Futures Contracts: Most external futures contracts such as COMEX gold, COMEX silver, LME copper, etc. declined. For example, COMEX gold dropped by 0.973%, and COMEX silver fell by 2.444% [2]. - Domestic Futures Contracts: Domestic metal, chemical, and agricultural product futures also showed price changes. For instance, in the metal sector, gold dropped by 0.448%, and in the chemical sector, coke decreased by 8.111%. Among agricultural products, yellow soybean No.1 fell by 0.379% [2][5]. 3.2 Macro News - Industrial Profits: In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. From January to June, the total profit was 3436.5 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year decrease. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year - on - year, while that of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% [7]. - US - EU Trade Agreement: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by 60 billion US dollars, purchase US military equipment and 150 billion US dollars of energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs [7]. - Central Enterprise Research: The director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council went to Shanghai to research the layout and development of strategic emerging industries of central enterprises, aiming to support central enterprises in enhancing innovation and developing emerging pillar industries [8]. - Provincial Economic Data: The economic performance of the six central provinces was remarkable. Except for Shanxi with a GDP growth of 3.8%, the growth rates of Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei, and Hunan all exceeded the national average of 5.3% [8]. - Agricultural Policy: Ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued a plan to promote agricultural product consumption, including measures such as strengthening supervision and financial support [9]. - Logistics Cost: In the first half of the year, the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP dropped to 14%, a decrease of 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points compared to the first quarter and the same period last year respectively [9]. - AI Development: The deputy director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasized the importance of promoting the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence industry [9]. 3.3 Main Product Morning Meeting Views - Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate slightly and maintain a downward trend in the short term [11]. - Oils and Fats: The oils and fats market has light trading volume, with stable basis. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future [11]. - Sugar: On July 25, sugar futures rose by 0.39%. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors. Technically, it has broken through the upper limit of the original shock range. It is recommended to maintain a short - term rebound strategy but beware of callbacks [12]. - Corn: On July 25, corn futures fell by 0.3%. The market has weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and pay attention to import policies and substitute price differences [13]. - Pigs and Eggs: The spot price of pigs is falling, and the futures are relatively strong, expected to fluctuate within a range. The spot price of eggs is stable, and the futures have a greater callback pressure. It is recommended to reduce long positions and enter short positions [15]. - Energy and Chemicals - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to stabilize. The futures price is affected by coal price increases, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [15]. - Urea: The domestic urea market price is slightly weak. Supply and demand are both decreasing, but there are expectations of improvement in autumn fertilizers and export demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro policies [15]. - Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Copper prices are oscillating at high levels due to weak overseas macro factors. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at high levels due to supply increases and consumption off - seasons [15][17]. - Alumina: The price of alumina has rebounded significantly, and there is a risk of increased short - term volatility [17]. - Steel Products: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils fell at night on Friday. The rebar market has increased production and demand, and the inventory has decreased again. The hot - rolled coil market has decreased production and demand, and the inventory has slightly increased. Attention should be paid to short - term price callback risks [17]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferroalloys have not changed much. They are mainly affected by coal prices and macro - policy expectations. It is recommended to operate with caution [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The production and inventory of coking coal and coke have changed. The price of coke has increased in three rounds, and the fourth round has started. However, the coking coal futures price dropped sharply on Friday night, and short - term fluctuations may continue [17][18]. - Lithium Carbonate: On July 25, lithium carbonate futures rose by 7.99%. The fundamentals are a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to go long with a light position but beware of risks [19]. - Options and Finance - Stock Index: On July 24, A - share indices rose. The market is paying attention to Sino - US economic and trade talks, the Politburo meeting, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC and conduct rolling operations [21][22]. - Options: On July 25, A - share indices slightly adjusted. The trading volume and open interest of options changed, and the implied volatility increased. Trend investors should focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors should buy straddles to go long on volatility [23][24].