方正中期期货有色金属周度策略-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - US copper market has low inventory, and the domestic copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, with inventory depletion likely to continue. The short - term price of Shanghai copper lacks a clear driver and maintains low volatility [3]. - The aluminum market sentiment has slightly declined, and it is recommended to wait and see. For different aluminum - related products, corresponding support and pressure intervals are given, and options can be used for protection [5]. - The fundamentals of tin are in a situation of both weak supply and demand, with the market oscillating weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [5]. - The zinc market has an increase in supply and weak demand, with import processing fees rising. The price is expected to be short - term bearish with a certain support level [6]. - The lead market has a recovery in demand, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and the macro - orientation. It can be considered to go long at low prices [6]. - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are affected by multiple factors such as the dollar and trade agreements. They are in an oscillating state, and short - term short - selling strategies can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro - logic: The non - ferrous metal sector rebounded to different degrees this week. Domestic policies are favorable, but the spill - over effect on non - ferrous metals is limited in terms of persistence and intensity. Overseas, tariff negotiations are still ongoing, and the market is cautious. The future trend of non - ferrous metals depends on the resonance of supply - demand fundamentals and the macro - environment [10][12]. - Single - side strategies for each variety: - Copper: It is recommended to go long at low prices, as the non - US market inventory is low and the domestic copper market is expected to have a supply - demand imbalance with weak supply and strong demand [13]. - Zinc: Adopt a strategy of short - term long and medium - term short, as the supply is increasing and the demand is weak [13]. - Aluminum industry chain: It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell in the short term, as the supply and demand situation is not optimistic [14]. - Tin: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an interval oscillation [14]. - Lead: Consider buying a bull spread at low prices or using a wide - interval double - selling strategy, as the market is in an interval arrangement [14]. - Nickel: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices, as the market is in an interval fluctuation [15]. - Stainless steel: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, as the market is in an oscillating state [15]. - Arbitrage strategies: - Copper 2508 - 2509 contract positive spread: After the tariff expectation is fulfilled, the short - term negative impact on Shanghai copper is basically over, and the domestic copper market fundamentals are turning to weak supply and strong demand [16]. - Alumina 2502 - 2509 contract reverse spread: The near - strong and far - weak structure of alumina has returned [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The report provides the closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures, including copper, aluminum, tin, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and cast aluminum alloy [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel), relevant data tracking charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, and production capacity utilization rates [22][24][33][35][41][49][57][67]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum and alumina, tin, lead, nickel and stainless steel), relevant arbitrage data charts are provided, such as the ratio of Shanghai and London prices, basis spreads, and spreads between different contracts [72][74][75][78][81][86][87]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - For each non - ferrous metal variety (copper, zinc, aluminum), relevant option data charts are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [91][93][94].