大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程风险偏好明显抬升，增长和通胀均边际改善-20250728

Market Overview - The macro environment shows signs of marginal improvement in growth and inflation, with liquidity remaining loose[4] - The CSI 500 index leads the A-share market with a gain of 3.28%, reflecting a structural market rally[4] - The total trading volume in the A-share market increased by 19.3% week-on-week, indicating enhanced investor participation[61] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Fixed Income: Focus on medium to short-duration high-grade credit bonds while avoiding long-duration bonds due to rising interest rate risks[5] - A-shares: Maintain a cautious approach due to valuation pressures, while looking for rotation opportunities in undervalued sectors[5] - Commodities: Overall underweight position, with a focus on opportunities in new energy and domestic demand-related sectors[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] International Markets - Recent U.S. economic data has marginally exceeded expectations, suggesting potential opportunities in U.S. equities[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.82%, indicating a weakening dollar which may benefit non-U.S. assets[58] Inflation and Growth Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to show downward pressure, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown marginal improvement, rising by 0.1% year-on-year[53] - The Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a value of 49.3, indicating a contraction in business conditions[44]