Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Review: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - Important Information: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - Logic Analysis: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - Market Review: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - Important Information: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - Market Review: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - Important Information: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - Logic Analysis: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - Important Information: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - Logic Analysis: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - Trading Strategy: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - Important Information: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - Market Review: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - Important Information: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - Market Review: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - Important Information: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - Logic Analysis: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - Trading Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - Market Review: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - Important Information: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - Logic Analysis: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - Important Information: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - Logic Analysis: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - Important Information: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - Logic Analysis: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - Trading Strategy: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - Important Information: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - Logic Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - Trading Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - Important Information: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - Logic Analysis: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - Trading Strategy: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - Important Information: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - Logic Analysis: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - Trading Strategy: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250728
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-07-28 08:45