方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20250728

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: Concerns about Brazil's new sugar - cane crushing season supply and increased demand from the US, Pakistan, etc., may boost the raw sugar futures price, which is expected to remain volatile. In the Chinese market, the strong macro and commodity sentiment boosts the sentiment of going long on Zhengzhou sugar futures. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the spot price is relatively firm, but the import pressure is increasing, and the futures price faces certain pressure [4]. - Pulp: The re - inflation expectation driven by anti - involution has led to the rise of low - priced commodities, and pulp has also risen. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry have changed little. The supply of hardwood pulp and the finished paper market still drag down the pulp futures. The upward space needs to track the market sentiment [6]. - Cotton: Globally, the new - season cotton has changed from a slight destocking to a slight stocking, which suppresses the market. However, factors such as the decrease in the US planting area and the slow progress of planting in India provide potential support. In the Chinese market, it is a game between the expectation of tightened supply and weak downstream consumption, and the futures price enters a shock period [8]. Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector - Apple: The apple futures price continues to fluctuate at a high level. The reasons for the recent rise are the strong overall commodity sentiment, the drive of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. The low inventory of the old season, the slight reduction in production of the new season, and the year - on - year increase in the opening price of early - maturing apples support the price. The later price trend depends on the production, quality, and harvest progress of the new - season apples [9]. - Jujube: The jujube futures price fluctuates widely. The spot inventory depletion speed is slow, and the consumption is in the off - season. The new - season fruit listing substitutes the jujube consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the weather on the fruit setting of the new - season jujube trees [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Recommended Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | Pay attention to short - selling opportunities | The initial production forecast is basically finalized, and the opening price of early - maturing apples has risen slightly year - on - year, with limited increase. The overall futures price is expected to remain within a range | 7300 - 7350 | 8000 - 8100 | | Jujube 2601 | Go long on dips | The influence of weather factors increases | 9000 - 9300 | 104400 - 11500 | | Sugar 2509 | Gradually reduce long positions on rallies | The rebound of the raw sugar futures price boosts the sentiment of the Zhengzhou sugar market. The futures price fluctuates strongly, but the upward space is relatively limited | 5790 - 5810 | 5900 - 5920 | | Pulp 2507 | Short - sellers reduce positions on dips | The improvement of the commodity market sentiment drives the pulp to rebound. However, there is no news of production cuts in the pulp and paper industry, and the peak season of finished paper demand has not arrived, so the upward height of pulp is not optimistic | 5200 - 5250 | 5500 - 5600 | | Cotton 2509 | Reduce long positions on rallies | The support of low inventory and low imports has been partially realized, and the futures price enters a shock period in the short term | 13200 - 13300 | 14400 - 14500 | [18] Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 1. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8005 | 122 | 1.55 | | Jujube 2509 | 9435 | 105 | 1.13 | | Sugar 2509 | 5876 | 50 | 0.86 | | Pulp 2509 | 5520 | 228 | 4.31 | | Cotton 2509 | 14170 | - 100 | - 0.70 | [19] 2. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | MoM Change | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 6050 | 0 | - 410 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5950 | 0 | - 150 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15549 | - 14 | - 46 | [27] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The content mainly provides relevant charts, including the basis of Apple 10 - month, jujube main - continuous, sugar main - continuous, and pulp main - continuous, but no specific data summary is given [39][40][41][43]. Fourth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation The content mainly provides relevant charts, including the spreads of Apple 10 - 1, Apple 1 - 5, jujube 1/5, jujube 5/9, sugar 5 - 9, and sugar 9 - 1, but no specific data summary is given [46][47][50]. Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | MoM Change | YoY Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 8813 | - 80 | - 2610 | | Sugar | 20642 | - 298 | 4470 | | Pulp | 255698 | 0 | - 254215 | | Cotton | 9265 | - 72 | - 2636 | [51] Sixth Part: Option - related Data | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | The initial production forecast is basically finalized, and the reduction in production amplitude has converged compared with the previous period | Hold out - of - the - money call options | | Jujube 2509 | New jujube production increase and concentrated listing | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2509 | The spot price is firm, and the raw sugar futures price rebounds | Sell deep out - of - the - money put options | | Cotton 2509 | The bullish factors have been realized, and the upward trend of the futures price slows down in the short term | Hold out - of - the - money put options | [51] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation - Apple: The content provides charts of the minimum temperature, precipitation, export quantity, and storage inventory in major apple - producing areas, but no specific data summary is given [73][77][79] - Jujube: The content provides charts of the weekly trading volume in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific data summary is given [82][84] - Sugar: The content provides charts of the national sugar industrial inventory, sugar import quantity, and sugar spot - futures difference, but no specific data summary is given [88][89][93] - Pulp: The content provides charts of domestic pulp inventory, global producer pulp inventory days, paper production, and pulp import quantity, but no specific data summary is given [91][94][103] - Cotton: The content provides charts of national cotton industrial inventory, commercial inventory, import quantity, clothing retail value, and clothing export amount, but no specific data summary is given [105][110][111]