利率债市场周观察：债市调整原因再审视：利率或筑顶

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After last week's unexpected adjustment, bond market interest rates may reach their peak. The main reasons for the adjustment are tight liquidity, increased inflation expectations due to "anti - involution", and the impact of the rising equity market on the bond market [7][14]. - The tight liquidity is not a cause - effect relationship with the bond market adjustment but a synchronous one. The central bank's increased MLF and reverse - repo operations on Friday indicate its intention to break the negative feedback, so the tight liquidity is not expected to last [7][14]. - The inflation expectations increase caused by "anti - involution" will not last long. It is difficult for the PPI to turn positive this year, and the market expectations will gradually subside, reducing the impact on the bond market [7][14]. - The equity market will continue to rise, but the stock market's rise is not a sufficient condition for interest rate hikes. The continued rise of the equity market will mainly be driven by the improved expectations of national governance and technological - led economic transformation, with a limited impact on the bond market. A scenario of both rising stocks and bonds is still possible [7][15]. - For highly liquid interest - rate bonds, it is recommended to gradually participate, such as 10 - year treasury bonds with yields above 1.7% and 30 - year treasury bonds with yields above 1.95%. For less liquid credit bonds, there may still be a risk of catch - up decline, so it is advisable to wait and see. For convertible bonds, although the valuation is expensive, their investment value driven by the equity market is still optimistic [7][19]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: Re - examining the Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - Interest Rates May Reach the Peak - The reasons for the bond market adjustment include tight liquidity, increased inflation expectations due to "anti - involution", and the impact of the rising equity market. However, these factors are not expected to have a long - term negative impact on the bond market [7][14]. - The tight liquidity is part of a negative feedback loop but the central bank's actions suggest it will not persist. The inflation expectations increase from "anti - involution" will fade as PPI is unlikely to turn positive this year. The equity market's rise does not necessarily lead to a bond market decline, and a dual - bull market for stocks and bonds is possible [7][15]. 3.2 This Week's Key Points in the Fixed - Income Market: The Fed's Interest Rate Decision Will Be Announced 3.2.1 Intensive Release of Overseas Data - This week, China will release July PMI, the US will release July non - farm payrolls, July ADP, and the Fed's interest rate decision, and the Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate [21]. 3.2.2 The Issuance of Interest - Rate Bonds This Week Continues to Remain at a Relatively High Level - This week, it is expected to issue 677.2 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, which is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [22]. 3.3 Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds: Bond Funds Have Experienced Continuous Redemptions 3.3.1 Slight Net Withdrawal of Reverse Repos - The central bank's open - market operations maintained a neutral net injection. The reverse - repo issuance volume first decreased and then increased, with a total of 1.6563 trillion yuan, and a slight net withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan. The MLF had a net injection of 10 billion yuan this month [31][32]. - The capital interest rate increased from a low level, and the trading volume showed an obvious reverse change. The weekly average of the repurchase trading volume was around 7.7 trillion yuan, and the overnight ratio averaged 88.5%. The overnight and 7 - day DR and R interest rates all increased [32]. - A large number of certificates of deposit (CDs) matured, resulting in a significantly negative net financing. The secondary market yield of CDs increased rapidly, driving up the primary issuance rate [39]. 3.3.2 Obvious Upward Adjustment of Interest Rates - At the beginning of the week, with loose liquidity but hot sentiment in the stock and commodity markets, there was a large amount of profit - taking funds in the bond market, and the long - end interest rates adjusted slightly. In the second half of the week, as the central bank's injection weakened, the liquidity pressure increased sharply, and bond funds faced a large number of redemptions, causing interest rates to continue to rise. On July 27, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds all increased compared to the previous week [55]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: The Improvement in the Operating Rate Did Not Persist - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates remained flat, while the semi - steel tire and petroleum asphalt operating rates declined. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel production in mid - July remained negative [66]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales remained high. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area continued to be negative. The SCFI and CCFI composite indexes both decreased [66]. - On the price side, the crude oil price decreased, the copper and aluminum prices increased, the coal prices were divided, the coking coal price rose rapidly, and the power coal price remained flat. The building materials composite index increased, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased significantly. The production and inventory of rebar increased, and the futures price increased. The prices of vegetables and pork increased, while the price of fruits decreased [67].