信用周观察系列：信用债哪些品种或较快修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 21 - 25, the stock and commodity markets strengthened, and the bond market adjusted significantly. Credit bonds showed vulnerability, with reasons including low yields and credit spreads weakening the cushioning effect of coupons on valuation fluctuations, and bond market adjustments and tightened liquidity leading to preventive redemptions of funds by wealth management products, resulting in selling pressure on credit bonds. However, with the central bank's support and seasonal liquidity easing at the beginning of the month, the liquidity may recover, driving the recovery of credit bonds [1][2][11]. - After the adjustment, credit spreads generally remained at low levels. Institutions may prefer credit bond varieties with better liquidity. Among them, short - term urban investment bonds, certain grades of urban investment and industrial bonds with specific maturities had relatively high trading activity during the adjustment period, and their valuation recovery opportunities are worthy of attention. Long - term bonds with maturities over 5 years may face greater valuation fluctuation risks [2][3][17]. - In the bank capital bond market, yields rose across the board from July 21 - 25, and credit spreads widened. After the over - adjustment, there are opportunities. The yields of 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have become more attractive, and insurance institutions have increased their allocation. Short - term and lower - rated bank capital bonds such as 3 - year AA and 2 - year AA - bank capital bonds may be relatively advantageous choices [5][6][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urban Investment Bonds: Yields Up Across the Board, Sci - tech Innovation Bonds Underperformed - In the primary market, from July 1 - 27, 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds was slightly positive. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing, and the proportion of 2 - 3 times increasing. The issuance term changed little, and the issuance rate remained low, with rates for different terms decreasing compared to June [29][31]. - In the secondary market, yields of urban investment bonds rose across the board. The adjustment of previously "over - bought" sci - tech innovation bond components was greater, restricting the growth of the sci - tech innovation bond ETF scale. The trading activity of urban investment bonds decreased, and the buying sentiment declined sharply [11][12][34]. 3.2 Industrial Bonds: Both Issuance and Trading Reduced Maturities, and the Proportion of High - rated Trading Recovered - From July 1 - 27, the issuance and net financing scale of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance sentiment weakened, with the proportion of full - subscription multiples over 3 times decreasing and that of 2 - 3 times increasing. The proportion of long - term issuance over 5 years decreased significantly, and the issuance rate changed little overall [39][41]. - In terms of trading, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds weakened significantly, with the TKN proportion decreasing and the low - valuation proportion dropping. The trading slightly reduced maturities, and the proportion of high - rated trading recovered [42]. 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds: Long - term Large - bank Bonds Performed Weaker, and Trading "Increased Volume with Falling Prices" - From July 21 - 25, 2025, several banks issued secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds. In the secondary market, due to increased market risk appetite and tightened liquidity, the yields of bank capital bonds rose across the board, with long - term large - bank secondary capital bonds performing weaker. Credit spreads also widened across the board, and the trading volume increased while the trading sentiment weakened significantly. The trading was mainly concentrated in medium - and long - term varieties with better liquidity, and the trading of city commercial bank capital bonds shifted towards high - grade bonds [45][48][51]. - Regarding TLAC bonds, the spreads between 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds and TLAC bonds were analyzed, indicating that 10 - year TLAC bonds were more cost - effective at present. For commercial financial bonds, the credit spread of 3Y AAA commercial financial bonds reached the lower limit of the central position [51][55].