2025年1-6月工业企业效益数据点评：政策效能叠加出口回升，6月工企利润边际改善

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with June's profit decline narrowing to 4.3%[1] - The cumulative profit growth rate for large-scale industrial enterprises showed a marginal improvement for foreign and Hong Kong-Macau-Taiwan invested enterprises, while private, state-owned, and joint-stock enterprises experienced a decline[1] - The profit margin for large-scale industrial enterprises in the first half of 2025 was 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - The operating revenue for large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 2.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - In the first half of 2025, 17 out of 41 industrial sectors achieved positive profit growth, with notable increases in black metal smelting, non-ferrous metal mining, and equipment manufacturing sectors[1] Group 3: Policy and Market Outlook - The improvement in June's industrial enterprise profits is attributed to the delayed effects of tariff suspensions and the release of "two new" policy efficiencies, alongside a rebound in exports[2] - The expectation of continued marginal improvement in July's industrial enterprise profits is based on the ongoing implementation of anti-involution measures, which are anticipated to alleviate price pressures[2] - Risks include the potential underperformance of anti-involution measures and uncertainties in the external environment that could disrupt domestic economic conditions[3]