工业硅周报：短期或有回调，关注龙头大厂生产动态-20250728

Report 1: Industrial Silicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the supply of industrial silicon has increased after the production increase of leading large - scale factories and south - western silicon factories, there is still a supply - demand gap before the further significant production increase of the leading factory's Shanshan capacity. However, due to the significant callback of coking coal, glass, and soda ash on Friday night, the bullish sentiment may fade next week, and the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a callback [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Supply and Demand: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 45,600 tons, a 4.60% week - on - week decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, a 4.01% week - on - week increase; the operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained flat. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease [3]. - Trading Logic: There is a supply - demand gap before the significant production increase of the leading factory. The bullish sentiment may fade, and the futures are expected to have a callback [3]. - Strategies: For unilateral trading, the bullish sentiment has faded, and short - term callbacks are possible, so previous long positions should be withdrawn. For options, hold the previous protective put options. For arbitrage, gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Market Review: This week, industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell. The futures main contract closed at 9,725 yuan/ton on Friday. The industrial silicon spot prices strengthened significantly, and most grades exceeded 10,000 yuan/ton [6]. - Downstream Demand: DMC output decreased, polysilicon output slightly increased, and the aluminum alloy operating rates remained stable. Some organic silicon enterprises had maintenance due to accidents, and the total maintenance capacity was 800,000 tons/year. The output of polysilicon is expected to increase in the future [9][13]. - Industrial Silicon Output: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,100 tons, a 5.24% week - on - week increase. The number of open furnaces increased in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang. If the leading factory starts 10 new 33000KVA submerged arc furnaces as planned, the monthly output will increase by about 20,000 tons [19]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: The social inventory decreased slightly, while the factory inventories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan increased [20]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Prices of Industrial Silicon - Related Products: The spot prices of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [26]. - Prices of Organic Silicon - Related Products: The prices of DMC and terminal products strengthened this week [31]. - Fundamental Data of Organic Silicon Intermediates: The profit margin of DMC improved, and the operating rate decreased week - on - week [37]. - Fundamental Data of Aluminum Alloys: The operating rates of aluminum alloys remained stable [40]. - Raw Material Prices of Industrial Silicon: The electricity prices in the southwest decreased, and the price of refined coal in Xinjiang increased slightly [42]. Report 2: Polysilicon Weekly Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In August, polysilicon enterprises are expected to increase production, and there may be an oversupply of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. After the significant callback of coking coal, soda ash, and glass on Friday, the polysilicon futures are expected to open significantly lower on Monday. If the capacity integration plan is finalized in the middle of the week, the bullish expectation of polysilicon futures still exists [48]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Supply and Demand: In August, the polysilicon output is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons, and the silicon wafer production schedule is basically the same as that in July, resulting in an oversupply [48]. - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, withdraw long positions temporarily and re - enter after a sufficient callback. Hold put options. Gradually take profit on the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon [49]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Situation - Polysilicon Prices: The spot quotations of polysilicon manufacturers remained stable this week. The actual transaction prices increased after the strengthening of polysilicon futures [56][62]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The prices of silicon wafers increased significantly, and the battery prices are expected to continue to rise [63][67]. - Component Prices: The prices of photovoltaic components increased slightly this week, and there is an expectation of further increase [68]. - Component Fundamental Data: The domestic component inventory decreased rapidly. The price increase of components was partially accepted, but the mechanism electricity price was negative. The orders and production schedules in August weakened [75]. - Battery Fundamental Data: The inventory of professional battery manufacturers decreased to 9.9GW. The battery production is scheduled according to demand, and the import demand from Turkey increased. The domestic battery production schedule in August is expected to be 52GW, a decrease of 2GW compared with July [81]. - Silicon Wafer Fundamental Data: The silicon wafer inventory increased to 17.87GW this week, and the production remained flat. The production schedule in August is expected to be the same as that in July [85]. - Polysilicon Fundamental Data: The polysilicon production increased slightly this week, and the factory inventory increased to 275,400 tons. The production is expected to increase by about 30,000 tons in August [89].