Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 09:27Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face adjustments next week, with prices likely to fluctuate. Although prices are supported by costs and policies, the upside is limited by downstream acceptance. The short - term decline in futures may not lead to a significant drop in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see or consider bearish options [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 49,405 yuan/ton, down 1,620 yuan; the open interest was 136,295 lots, down 18,873 lots. The 8 - 9 month polysilicon spread was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 40,490 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the basis was - 4,525 yuan/ton, up 3,240 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 8,915 yuan/ton, down 810 yuan; the spot price was 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2] 下游情况 - The monthly output of solar cells was 67.386 million kilowatts, down 3.183 million kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units, and the average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The weekly polysilicon price index of the photovoltaic industry was 26.63, up 4.34 [2] Industry News - As of the end of June, the total installed power generation capacity in China was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.7%. From January to June, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 1,504 hours, 162 hours less than the same period last year [2] - On the supply side, some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. There is a potential increasing trend in supply. On the demand side, the demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry has slightly decreased, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials has increased. However, photovoltaic component manufacturers are pressing prices when purchasing polysilicon, and the demand - side support is insufficient [2]