成本支撑叠加检修落地阶段性提振价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [8] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern from July to August. Recent maintenance has been implemented, and downstream maintenance is less than expected, leading to a certain degree of contraction in the overall supply. Additionally, the rising coal prices provide support to the cost side [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Review: Macro Sentiment + Cost Support + Maintenance Boost Prices - Since the end of June, the methanol price center has increased month-on-month. As of July 24, the closing price of the main contract has increased by about 4% compared to the end of June, mainly due to macro sentiment, concentrated maintenance, and rising coal prices [16]. 2. Third - Quarter Maintenance Expectations May Provide Strong Support to the Supply Side - July - August is the traditional off - season for methanol, with many planned maintenance activities. Due to high profits in coal - to - methanol production in the first half of the year, some maintenance plans were postponed, making the third quarter a concentrated maintenance season. The national methanol operating rate dropped from 78% at the end of June to about 71% in mid - July. The maintenance in July is expected to affect the output by 800,000 tons, and the estimated domestic methanol output in July is 7.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 10% [3][21]. 3. Strengthening Macro Sentiment, the Cost Side is Expected to be Effectively Boosted - The "Anti - involution" policy has led to a high - spirited sentiment in the commodity market, which has spread to the coal industry. Coal prices, represented by coking coal, have rebounded rapidly. As of July 24, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,232 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of over 70% from the bottom of 709 yuan in mid - June [23]. - Coal price increase may drive the repair of the methanol cost side, but it is expected to have limited impact on the operating rate. If the coal price center moves up in the second half of the year, the methanol cost side may be strongly supported, and the methanol valuation may be improved. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol production may be suppressed to some extent, the overall operating rate is expected to decline slightly [24]. 4. The Health of the Demand Side Currently Remains Stable, but the Transmission Effect after Cost Increase Needs Attention - In summer, the downstream of methanol is in the traditional off - season, but there is a certain stagger between downstream maintenance and methanol production. Except for formaldehyde, other downstream sub - industries have no large - scale maintenance in July, and the overall operating rate has remained stable month - on - month (with a slight decline due to seasonal factors). - For the traditional demand side, the overall operating rate depends on the demand of each terminal market. For the MTO side, the profit of integrated devices may decline, and attention should be paid to the subsequent operating status of MTO. Overall, the cost side is less likely to affect the downstream operating rate, and more attention should be paid to the terminal market demand feedback [29]. 5. Investment Advice - Methanol is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern from July to August. With recent maintenance and less - than - expected downstream maintenance, the supply side is contracting, and the rising coal prices support the cost side, so it is considered strong in the short term [6][40]