兼评6月企业利润数据：反内卷初见成效

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, the cumulative profit of national industrial enterprises decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 1.1%[3] - Cumulative operating revenue increased by 2.5% year-on-year, slightly down from 2.7% in the previous period[3] - In June, the monthly revenue growth was approximately 1.6%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[4] Group 2: Profitability Insights - The profit decline in June narrowed to -4.3%, improving by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[4] - The contributions to June's profit growth from industrial value added, PPI, and profit margin year-on-year were +6.4, -3.6, and -6.9 percentage points, respectively[4] - Investment income is expected to contribute more significantly to profits, with June's cost, expenses, and investment income per 100 yuan of revenue being 85.2, 8.8, and 0.0 yuan, respectively[4] Group 3: Sector Analysis - In June, the profit growth of anti-involution industries improved by 3.3 percentage points to -8.0%, while non-anti-involution industries declined by 0.9 percentage points to -2.1%[5] - The profit share of midstream industries increased to 39.5%, while upstream and downstream shares were 28.6% and 21%, respectively[5] - Specific sectors like black metallurgy and automotive saw significant profit improvements, with increases of 1815.9 and 15.5 percentage points, respectively[5] Group 4: Inventory and Market Dynamics - In June, nominal inventory decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.1%, while actual inventory saw a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 6.7%[7] - The inventory turnover ratio remained high, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory management despite the nominal decrease[7] - The report highlights that the initial effects of anti-involution are beginning to show, with structural improvements in enterprise profits[7]