KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-07-28 09:38Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in prices for thermal coal and coking coal, indicating a favorable fundamental outlook [4][17] - The current price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 653 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.2% increase from the lowest price earlier this year [4][35] - The supply side remains constrained with a low operating rate of 81.3% among 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia [4][25] - The demand for electricity coal is high due to the summer peak season, supporting price increases [4][25] - Coking coal prices have also surged, with the price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port reaching 1680 CNY/ton, a 16.67% increase [4][26] Summary by Sections Investment Perspective - The coal market fundamentals are favorable, and it is time to position for growth as prices are expected to recover towards long-term contract prices around 670 CNY [4][17] - The price of coking coal is more influenced by supply and demand dynamics, with current prices indicating a recovery from previous lows [4][17] Market Performance - The coal index rose by 7.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.29 percentage points [28] - Major coal companies have shown significant price increases, with Lu'an Energy up by 31.22% and Jinko Coal up by 18.83% [28] Key Indicators - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 12.23, and the PB ratio is 1.26, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [29][32] - The port price for thermal coal has seen a slight increase, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price rising by 1.71% [35][38] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The operating rate of coal mines is at a low level, which may lead to further price increases as supply tightens [4][25] - The demand for non-electric coal remains strong, with methanol production rates at historical highs [4][25] Investment Recommendations - Four main investment lines are suggested: 1. Cycle logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华 and 中煤能源 for dividend potential 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][18]