瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250728
- Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to decline slightly next week, demand will remain largely unchanged, and with anti - involution speculation, lead prices are expected to fluctuate upwards in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,915 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023 dollars/ton, down 5.5 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 106,213 lots, down 251 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 3,439 lots, down 1,861 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 59,959 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory was 63,254 tons, up 919 tons; the LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, up 6,175 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,910 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 140 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 24.27 dollars/ton, up 0.94 dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,200 tons, down 2,900 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 60 dollars/thousand tons, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the domestic average processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,158.93 yuan/ton, up 23.22 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) was 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan Industry Index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,760.4 points, down 11.52 points. The monthly automobile output was 2.8086 million vehicles, up 0.1666 million vehicles; the monthly new energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump announced a trade agreement between the US and the EU: imposing a 15% tariff on the EU, with 600 billion dollars of EU investment in the US, the EU implementing a 0% tariff on the US, and the EU buying US military equipment and 750 billion dollars of US energy products. However, the US and the EU have different statements on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers pharmaceuticals and steel and aluminum. Trump is considering reaching agreements with three or four other countries. The US Commerce Secretary said the August 1 tariff increase deadline will not be extended, and the US will determine the tariff policy on chips within two weeks. US officials said Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. This week is a super central bank week, and the result of the Fed's interest - rate meeting should be noted [2] 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Primary lead smelters' operating rates decreased due to the decline in lead prices, leading to a decline in output. Although the current primary lead operating rate is still stronger than that of recycled lead and its by - product revenue is stable, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions. For recycled lead, due to the tight supply of waste battery raw materials, smelters lack confidence, and the overall supply is tight. The resumption of production is slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual spot trading is average, and downstream buyers are still waiting and watching. The slow destocking of distributors restrains the enthusiasm of battery factories, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. Domestic inventory is rising slightly, and the increase in warehouse receipts reflects the slowdown in overall demand [2]