瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250728

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is under full pressure due to policy - theme catalysts such as the "anti - involution" and Yajiang Water Conservancy Construction. The long - end performs significantly weaker than the short - end. If the relevant details of the "anti - involution" policy are further introduced, it will continue to put pressure on the bond market in the short term. Interest - rate bonds are likely to continue the pattern of weakening in shock in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and choose the opportunity to allocate after stabilization. The follow - up needs to focus on the sustainability of the strong performance of risk assets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Futures Closing Prices and Volume: T主力收盘价为108.395，涨幅0.18%，成交量78985手，减少1580手；TF主力收盘价为105.720，涨幅0.13%，成交量71923手，增加2320手；TS主力收盘价为102.362，涨幅0.04%，成交量43197手，增加128手；TL主力收盘价为118.780，涨幅0.56%，成交量120609手，减少3695手 [2]. - Futures Spreads: TL2512 - 2509价差为 - 0.29，减少0.05；T2512 - 2509价差为0.01，增加0.01；TF2512 - 2509价差为0.06，增加0.01；T09 - TL09价差为 - 10.39，减少0.62；TF09 - T09价差为 - 2.68，减少0.06；TS09 - T09价差为 - 6.03，减少0.16 [2]. - Futures Positions: T主力持仓量187839手，增加；T前20名多头持仓201483手，增加3049手；T前20名空头持仓194743手，增加1102手；T前20名净空仓 - 6740手，减少1947手；TF主力持仓量148362手，减少10201手；TF前20名多头持仓165141手，增加4183手；TF前20名空头持仓176706手，增加1546手；TF前20名净空仓11565手，减少2637手；TS主力持仓量101434手，减少2720手；TS前20名多头持仓80831手，增加926手；TS前20名空头持仓90943手，减少2360手；TS前20名净空仓10112手，减少3286手；TL主力持仓量120283手，减少2054手；TL前20名多头持仓126655手，增加3656手；TL前20名空头持仓126589手，增加2682手；TL前20名净空仓 - 66手，增加974手 [2]. 3.2 CTD and Active Bond Data - CTD Net Price: 220010.IB(6y)净价为107.01，增加0.1917；250007.IB(6y)净价为99.0955，增加0.1373；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.6861，增加0.1006；240020.IB(4y)净价为100.8844，增加0.1181；250006.IB(1.7y)净价为100.2734，增加0.0268；220007.IB(2y)净价为99.939，减少1.8495；210005.IB(17y)净价为134.1967，减少0.0388；210014.IB(18y)净价为130.7414，增加0.1041 [2]. - Active Bond Yields: 1y国债活跃券收益率为1.3775%，下降1.75bp；3y为1.4680%，下降0.20bp；5y为1.5900%，下降1.50bp；7y为1.6850%，下降0.75bp；10y为1.7325%，下降0.75bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rate Data - Short - term Interest Rates: 银质押隔夜利率为1.4110%，下降13.90bp；Shibor隔夜利率为1.4670%，下降5.30bp；银质押7天利率为1.5441%，下降9.59bp；Shibor7天利率为1.5960%，下降2.40bp；银质押14天利率为1.6400%，下降1.00bp；Shibor14天利率为1.6350%，下降9.30bp [2]. - LPR Rates: 1y LPR利率为3.00%，无变化；5y LPR利率为3.5%，无变化 [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - 公开市场操作发行规模4958亿、3251亿，到期规模1707亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - 中美商定国务院副总理何立峰7月27日至30日赴瑞士与美方举行经贸会谈，双方将按两国元首6月5日通话共识就经贸问题磋商 [2]. - 6月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降4.3%，降幅较5月收窄，1 - 6月全国规模以上工业企业利润总额34365亿元，同比下降1.8%；1 - 6月黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润同比增长13.7倍，采矿业利润同比下降30.3% [2]. - 美国与欧盟达成15%税率关税协议，特朗普称该协议将对多数输美欧洲商品征15%关税，欧盟将增加对美投资6000亿美元，购买美国军事装备和7500亿美元能源产品 [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Follow - 7月28日20:30关注美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 - 7月29日22:00关注美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数 [3]