Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 10:01Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory pressure of polyethylene is not significant. In July, the PE maintenance plan was basically fulfilled, and there will be fewer maintenance devices in the future. With the restart of previously shut - down devices, there is room for improvement in production and capacity utilization. Although the commissioning of new devices by ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical has been postponed, the commissioning pressure in the third quarter remains high. The seasonal demand for downstream shed films is rising, but most enterprises still have dull orders. The demand for daily chemical and food packaging films continues. It is expected that the inflection point of the downstream operating rate will arrive in early August. The international oil price is expected to show an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations in the future. The daily K - line of L2509 should focus on the support around 7300 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for polyethylene decreased, with the main contract closing at 7335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121 yuan. The trading volume increased by 11132 hands to 388896 hands, while the open interest decreased by 20147 hands to 346401 hands. The 1 - 5 month contract spread decreased by 6 to 5. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 3941 hands to - 23846 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China and East China increased, with the North China average price at 7350.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 73.04 yuan, and the East China average price at 7412.62 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.81 yuan. The basis increased by 2.04 to - 105.57 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore and the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan increased, with the Singapore price at 62.01 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.58 US dollars, and the Japan price at 580.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.37 US dollars. The middle prices of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia and CFR Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate increased by 0.76 percentage points to 78.97% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging films decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 48.07%, the operating rate of polyethylene pipes remained unchanged at 28.83%, and the operating rate of polyethylene agricultural films increased by 0.17 percentage points to 12.63% [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of polyethylene options increased. The 20 - day historical volatility increased by 1.48 percentage points to 12.05%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.49 percentage points to 13.39%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options increased by 0.28 percentage points to 13.24% and 13.23% respectively [2] Industry News - From July 18th to 24th, China's total polyethylene production was 61.51 million tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 79.83%, a 1.13 - percentage - point increase. The average operating rate of Chinese polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.1% from the previous period. As of July 23rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.29 million tons, a 4.99% decrease from the previous period. As of July 25th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 56.17 million tons, a 0.58% increase from the previous period [2]