Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-28 10:01Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - For the corn market, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to a good initial growth rate and high output prospects. In the domestic market, after traders sold their grains, their inventories tightened, and they still preferred to hold prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions increased slightly this week, the actual trading volume was limited, and the delivery speed was not as expected, failing to form large - scale effective supply. However, the deep - processing profit was under pressure, the enterprise operation rate was low, and feed enterprises' inventories were relatively safe, so the price increase momentum was insufficient, and the price generally maintained a narrow - range adjustment. [2] - For the corn starch market, affected by continuous production losses, the industry operation rate remained at a low level in recent years, and the supply pressure weakened significantly. However, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets was poor, and the downstream demand was in the traditional off - season, so the supply - demand situation was still loose. Recently, the starch price rebounded at a low level, and short - term observation was recommended. [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2319 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the 9 - 1 month spread was 93 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 805,560 lots, down 46,546 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 21,284 lots, down 9,284 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 167,879 lots, down 1,992 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract was 364 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2683 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan; the 9 - 11 month spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the open interest of the active contract was 173,432 lots, down 17,087 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,119 lots, down 8,297 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume was 6,599 lots, down 3,485 lots. [2] - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract was 419 cents/bushel, down 2 cents; the total open interest was 1,470,395 contracts, down 28,569 contracts; the non - commercial net long position was - 129,457 contracts, up 12,305 contracts. [2] Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2407.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn was 1993.27 yuan/ton, up 3.72 yuan; the international freight of imported corn was 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract was 88.84 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang were 2680 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2840 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged; the basis of the main corn starch contract was 15 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn was 356 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat was 2440.94 yuan/ton, down 3.62 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 175 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder was 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The predicted annual corn production in the US was 401.85 million tons, in Brazil was 131 million tons, in Argentina was 53 million tons, in China was 295 million tons, and in Ukraine was 30.5 million tons, all unchanged. [2] - Sown area: The predicted annual sown area of corn in the US was 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil was 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina was 7.5 million hectares, and in China was 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged. [2] - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports was 26.9 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports was 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory was 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons. [2] Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn was 16 million tons, down 3 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons. [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons. [2] - Processing profit: The corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 114 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; in Hebei was - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days were 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption was 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons. [2] - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The alcohol enterprise operation rate was 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise operation rate was 45.46%, down 4.83%. [2] Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility was 6.75%, up 0.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 9.44%, down 0.48%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 9.44%, down 0.48%. [2] Industry News - As of July 23, the 2024/25 corn harvest progress in Argentina was 84.0%, 5.1% higher than a week ago, 2.6% lower than the same period last year, but 6.7% higher than the five - year average. [2] - As of July 24, Ukraine had harvested 3.236 million hectares of grains (including legumes), accounting for 29% of the planned area, with a harvest output of 10.347 million tons and an average yield of 3.2 tons per hectare. [2] - As of the week of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 74%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and 7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. [2] Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption and the operation and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday as reported by Mysteel. [3]