股债跷跷板依然为主逻辑，国债高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - Policy Aspect: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - Funding Aspect: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - Supply and Demand Aspect: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - Sentiment Aspect: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]